Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bd2ca3d4cdd0c7a36c4d0e6df8a9fca5ec8e0d7e77554165c9e4b7d21c8860c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $444,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $457,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $444,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x330d…1639backed No | 1c | 115,966$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb68a…c568backed No | 14c | 54,286$7,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,558.07 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5d…4197backed No | 18c | 25,735$4,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,510.45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c8…60d4backed No | 8c | 17,606$1,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,405.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0708…a9a6backed No | 12c | 16,277$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked No | 15c | 6,301$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.8 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed No | 24c | 5,447$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.99 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…f9e3backed No | 21c | 4,214$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed No | 14c | 4,171$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.4 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430a…ff11backed No | 13c | 3,622$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.83 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…e2c0backed Yes | 79c | 3,185$2,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.24 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed No | 11c | 2,716$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.2 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b12…bf0fbacked Yes | 79c | 2,500$1,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…096abacked No | 20c | 2,475$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x967c…5d9fbacked No | 23c | 2,203$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 44cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd708…b9d2backed No | 18c | 2,004$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 1,853$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…7e8cbacked No | 10c | 1,665$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0856…dd1abacked Yes | 77c | 1,665$1,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.95 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +7.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e47…ecf7backed No | 5c | 1,500$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…49f7backed No | 9c | 1,452$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.43 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked No | 11c | 1,356$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.02 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf19…dd2ebacked Yes | 80c | 1,343$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…30b5backed No | 5c | 800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 19c | 750$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2763…7776backed No | 12c | 600$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe38b…8996backed No | 23c | 578.26$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa1…26a3backed No | 11c | 534$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked No | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +15.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3538…f361backed No | 12c | 361$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 16c | 221.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69eb…46e5backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…6ffebacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 161.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe84c…2ce2backed No | 8c | 133.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…3a26backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ca…3a5dbacked No | 22c | 89.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf60…c76ebacked No | 22c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e1…8b89backed No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62b…7a20backed No | 24c | 58.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe5…0309backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fc…d75ebacked No | 25c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7392…6e13backed Yes | 80c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8149…4718backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0305…0c9cbacked Yes | 76c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ac…16d3backed Yes | 80c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa3…666bbacked Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $4500 in September?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3600 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3800 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4000 in September?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4200 in September?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4300 in September?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4600 in September?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4800 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.