TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum dip to $4000 in September?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$680,432
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$685,621

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $680,432 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 225 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb68a…c568backed Yes31c49,701$15,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,455.1922216.2%36 W · 186 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed No31c45,979$14,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,392.5712025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed Yes63c42,623$26,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,969.73757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8678…5efabacked No0c35,317$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes68c26,085$17,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,274.6118425%46 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes47c25,949$12,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,776.2787828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes48c21,650$10,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,315.9863835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x795c…2093backed No47c21,350$9,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,995.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ba1…bd31backed No80c18,992$15,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,180.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3da…a0f9backed Yes68c17,634$11,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,670.3312824.2%31 W · 97 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf98b…bfc5backed No60c16,485$9,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,851.3624654.9%135 W · 111 L+16.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes53c16,367$8,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,663.4737745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bf7…1b90backed Yes41c14,776$6,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,746.31425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-38.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2adf…d89cbacked Yes46c13,467$6,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,297.1213561.5%83 W · 52 L+16.5wins+0.12per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x712f…38a1backed No76c13,229$10,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,004.17837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb80…a905backed Yes37c11,433$4,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,190.83728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-41.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes51c11,063$5,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,400.612544%11 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-19.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbd2…d91ebacked No62c11,000$6,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,8303060%18 W · 12 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick73cpaid-17.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5c7d…182abacked Yes71c7,986$5,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,323.49728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-60%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes29c6,885$1,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,920.6525824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa601…d54ebacked Yes26c5,759$1,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,276.973732.4%12 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d25…c76bbacked No38c5,040$1,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,897.8915023.3%35 W · 115 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b12…bf0fbacked No32c5,000$1,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5806950.7%35 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4a38…bfe8backed No37c4,515$1,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,666.912431.5%39 W · 85 L+0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1693…37eabacked No45c4,400$1,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,973.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13cb…a48abacked No37c4,171$1,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,523.069913.1%13 W · 86 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49d5…2e07backed No38c4,052$1,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,527.671050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf8e…0f12backed Yes36c4,040$1,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,578.841030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4290…e2c0backed Yes59c4,000$2,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,642.398428.6%24 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed No72c3,500$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,519.861450%7 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-34%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed No10c3,420$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.92313%3 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-49.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb49…a376backed No77c3,200$2,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,468.214845.8%22 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes21c3,012$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,364.872520%5 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-39.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf750…4abbbacked No46c2,950$1,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,367.511442.1%48 W · 66 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe80f…3354backed No15c2,900$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4353839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-30.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x320d…ee08backed No77c2,863$2,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,211.36425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick60cpaid-56.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6218…3db1backed No42c2,595$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089.84333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-42.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9196…c311backed No30c2,588$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.512736.2%46 W · 81 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick29cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x252d…c456backed Yes43c2,559$1,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,467.8847721.6%103 W · 374 L-21.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed No80c2,513$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0006468.8%44 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc317…5b24backed No80c2,500$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2113…e5c0backed No71c2,192$1,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,556.8720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x97a7…49f7backed No9c2,060$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.49546.3%44 W · 51 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed Yes65c2,000$1,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.113863%87 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61d0…1d86backed Yes59c1,754$1,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.6219439.2%76 W · 118 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25b8…87fbbacked No68c1,703$1,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.37560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes45c1,492$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.0955032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fb1…fb84backed Yes61c1,466$892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.462850%14 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+44.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x330d…1639backed No35c1,406$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.4370%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75e9…fc9fbacked Yes43c1,363$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.717423%17 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-25%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e47…ecf7backed No36c1,340$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.33324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-49.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5ac…5bd9backed No53c1,326$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b3a…783ebacked No54c1,300$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7005747.4%27 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cef…4ac7backed No40c1,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003737.8%14 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40ac…ee4bbacked Yes62c1,111$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.182470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed No62c1,100$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed No46c1,075$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.5511658.6%68 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba3…8cb2backed Yes56c1,058$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8611…21fdbacked No68c1,039$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.2320%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked Yes49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.41862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+18.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c62…5d44backed No46c1,010$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ef5…325ebacked No47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6b6…af8bbacked Yes73c1,000$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27014075.7%106 W · 34 L+17.6wins+0.13per pick63cpaid+22.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x824b…8f39backed No64c1,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0020…0d22backed Yes19c1,000$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8101127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6306…852abacked No53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5302222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-46.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4982…0a72backed Yes57c964.74$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d63…2cbfbacked No35c900$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3153748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed Yes71c895.01$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.025971.2%42 W · 17 L+11.1wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+28.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xfb9d…d78ebacked No31c890.6$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.772814.3%4 W · 24 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-64.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked No39c887$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.065453.7%29 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe300…8a97backed No15c795$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.2580%0 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2615…c16dbacked No23c786.04$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1804242.9%18 W · 24 L-8.8wins-0.21per pick64cpaid-39.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x28c1…6238backed Yes22c752.95$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.3520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb5f…8b16backed No48c729.17$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3501060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaefe…d7d4backed No48c716.15$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.752850%14 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4b3a…8938backed Yes36c709.99$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.292218.2%4 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-47.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe03d…189abacked No45c666.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22a9…2d50backed No65c614.87$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.72860.7%17 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick73cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes52c576.74$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.615324.5%13 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1eb…7afebacked No44c550.91$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.51225%3 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-60.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2cb5…0483backed No40c509.75$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd321…a77fbacked No78c507.04$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.354763.8%30 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e8b…1ea1backed No43c500$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2151855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a90…93bfbacked No47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2351442.9%6 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67b8…2449backed No35c468.8$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.572850%14 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa969…3501backed No71c422.54$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5999…bf2cbacked Yes61c409.84$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8a55…cfc4backed Yes70c400$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1205156.9%29 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+34%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc453…2bcdbacked Yes70c400$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1205554.5%30 W · 25 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes71c400$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1164250%21 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8485…c13ebacked No36c388$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.685545.5%25 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfc4a…104fbacked No53c377.55$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003250%16 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56d7…3d6bbacked No63c375.19$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.93154.8%17 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd515…14febacked Yes32c375$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17aa…cb3dbacked Yes40c374.46$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.462123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick38cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc53c…0eb4backed Yes64c355.76$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.757652.6%40 W · 36 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+20.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa366…54efbacked Yes70c350$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10515754.8%86 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b6f…340bbacked Yes64c342.83$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.957540%30 W · 45 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac45…ea33backed Yes59c338.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.98333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.