Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $4000 in September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14c3bddce00176f728f57eb6d423604d6362513603fac3a538788de77dccfdba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $680,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $685,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $680,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 225 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb68a…c568backed Yes | 31c | 49,701$15,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,455.19 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 31c | 45,979$14,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,392.57 | 120 | 25%30 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832d…d420backed Yes | 63c | 42,623$26,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,969.73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8678…5efabacked No | 0c | 35,317$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 68c | 26,085$17,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,274.61 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 47c | 25,949$12,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,776.27 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 48c | 21,650$10,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,315.98 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x795c…2093backed No | 47c | 21,350$9,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,995.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba1…bd31backed No | 80c | 18,992$15,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,180.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3da…a0f9backed Yes | 68c | 17,634$11,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,670.33 | 128 | 24.2%31 W · 97 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 60c | 16,485$9,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,851.36 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 53c | 16,367$8,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,663.47 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf7…1b90backed Yes | 41c | 14,776$6,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,746.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked Yes | 46c | 13,467$6,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,297.12 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…38a1backed No | 76c | 13,229$10,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,004.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb80…a905backed Yes | 37c | 11,433$4,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,190.83 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 51c | 11,063$5,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,400.61 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd2…d91ebacked No | 62c | 11,000$6,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,830 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7d…182abacked Yes | 71c | 7,986$5,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,323.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 29c | 6,885$1,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,920.65 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…d54ebacked Yes | 26c | 5,759$1,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,276.97 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d25…c76bbacked No | 38c | 5,040$1,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,897.89 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b12…bf0fbacked No | 32c | 5,000$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,580 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed No | 37c | 4,515$1,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,666.9 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1693…37eabacked No | 45c | 4,400$1,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,973.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13cb…a48abacked No | 37c | 4,171$1,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,523.06 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…2e07backed No | 38c | 4,052$1,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,527.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8e…0f12backed Yes | 36c | 4,040$1,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,578.84 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…e2c0backed Yes | 59c | 4,000$2,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,642.39 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed No | 72c | 3,500$2,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,519.86 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed No | 10c | 3,420$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.9 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb49…a376backed No | 77c | 3,200$2,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,468.21 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 21c | 3,012$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,364.87 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked No | 46c | 2,950$1,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,367.5 | 114 | 42.1%48 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed No | 15c | 2,900$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x320d…ee08backed No | 77c | 2,863$2,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,211.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6218…3db1backed No | 42c | 2,595$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 30c | 2,588$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.5 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 43c | 2,559$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,467.88 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed No | 80c | 2,513$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc317…5b24backed No | 80c | 2,500$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2113…e5c0backed No | 71c | 2,192$1,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…49f7backed No | 9c | 2,060$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.4 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 65c | 2,000$1,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.1 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 59c | 1,754$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.62 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b8…87fbbacked No | 68c | 1,703$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,158.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 45c | 1,492$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.09 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…fb84backed Yes | 61c | 1,466$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.46 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x330d…1639backed No | 35c | 1,406$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.43 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e9…fc9fbacked Yes | 43c | 1,363$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.71 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e47…ecf7backed No | 36c | 1,340$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.3 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ac…5bd9backed No | 53c | 1,326$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…783ebacked No | 54c | 1,300$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…4ac7backed No | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…ee4bbacked Yes | 62c | 1,111$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.18 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 62c | 1,100$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 46c | 1,075$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.55 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…8cb2backed Yes | 56c | 1,058$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8611…21fdbacked No | 68c | 1,039$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c62…5d44backed No | 46c | 1,010$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked No | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…af8bbacked Yes | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 140 | 75.7%106 W · 34 L | +17.6wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x824b…8f39backed No | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…0d22backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6306…852abacked No | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4982…0a72backed Yes | 57c | 964.74$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked No | 35c | 900$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 71c | 895.01$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.02 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +11.1wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…d78ebacked No | 31c | 890.6$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.77 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 39c | 887$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.06 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe300…8a97backed No | 15c | 795$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2615…c16dbacked No | 23c | 786.04$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -8.8wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…6238backed Yes | 22c | 752.95$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5f…8b16backed No | 48c | 729.17$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaefe…d7d4backed No | 48c | 716.15$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.75 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…8938backed Yes | 36c | 709.99$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.29 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe03d…189abacked No | 45c | 666.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…2d50backed No | 65c | 614.87$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.7 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 52c | 576.74$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.61 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1eb…7afebacked No | 44c | 550.91$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb5…0483backed No | 40c | 509.75$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd321…a77fbacked No | 78c | 507.04$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.35 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed No | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a90…93bfbacked No | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…2449backed No | 35c | 468.8$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.57 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa969…3501backed No | 71c | 422.54$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…bf2cbacked Yes | 61c | 409.84$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a55…cfc4backed Yes | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +34%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc453…2bcdbacked Yes | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8485…c13ebacked No | 36c | 388$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.68 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4a…104fbacked No | 53c | 377.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked No | 63c | 375.19$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.9 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd515…14febacked Yes | 32c | 375$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17aa…cb3dbacked Yes | 40c | 374.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.46 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc53c…0eb4backed Yes | 64c | 355.76$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.75 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa366…54efbacked Yes | 70c | 350$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 157 | 54.8%86 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6f…340bbacked Yes | 64c | 342.83$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.95 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…ea33backed Yes | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $4000 in September?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3600 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3800 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4200 in September?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4300 in September?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4500 in September?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4600 in September?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4800 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.