Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $4600 in September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2897581512d9fda42d04b37c781ffce015c6d7d6f8580de4dbec562c52bbe99d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $164,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $143,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc822…3045backed No | 9c | 16,082$1,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491.08 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77cd…1427backed No | 30c | 12,181$3,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,687.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68a…c568backed No | 27c | 10,740$2,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,869.8 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 8c | 10,643$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.69 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x175b…93aebacked Yes | 73c | 10,000$7,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked No | 19c | 7,901$1,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,531.95 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked No | 22c | 7,085$1,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,538.72 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 8c | 5,500$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…49f7backed No | 3c | 4,740$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.68 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed No | 32c | 3,761$1,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,203.43 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…b265backed Yes | 70c | 3,000$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked No | 12c | 2,971$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.18 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…e2c0backed Yes | 70c | 2,626$1,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.06 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x330d…1639backed No | 24c | 2,333$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e47…ecf7backed No | 9c | 2,330$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.25 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed No | 20c | 2,325$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.77 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430a…ff11backed No | 22c | 2,012$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.2 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d25…c76bbacked No | 30c | 1,927$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.08 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0856…dd1abacked Yes | 72c | 1,694$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.2 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +7.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75e9…fc9fbacked No | 19c | 1,399$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.89 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.05 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b12…bf0fbacked Yes | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed No | 19c | 997.77$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.93 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3896…ece6backed Yes | 72c | 925$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes | 74c | 858.32$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.41 | 122 | 59.8%73 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 28c | 750$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked No | 27c | 750$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked No | 6c | 627.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…ae55backed Yes | 79c | 507.99$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9683…5eb2backed Yes | 73c | 470$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x821c…ffc7backed No | 19c | 427.24$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.54 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc453…2bcdbacked No | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…6287backed Yes | 72c | 339.86$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…3850backed No | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…3a26backed No | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x841f…2726backed Yes | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9133…aa0fbacked Yes | 71c | 296$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.84 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d80…ef24backed No | 24c | 267.29$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…30b5backed No | 10c | 253.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac06…e808backed No | 23c | 245.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes | 79c | 235$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ca…3a5dbacked No | 33c | 227.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa289…b412backed Yes | 71c | 183.1$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 65 | 75.4%49 W · 16 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21e8…2f81backed Yes | 72c | 164.14$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdae5…d7b7backed Yes | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8400…6036backed No | 23c | 134.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2e…da30backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x622d…2ebebacked Yes | 77c | 124.44$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fd…bf90backed Yes | 71c | 119.87$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…8075backed Yes | 71c | 115.8$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69eb…46e5backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccb…83f2backed No | 12c | 93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f2…8a1fbacked Yes | 71c | 80.28$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…c791backed No | 31c | 58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…5d74backed No | 31c | 58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…8e0bbacked No | 28c | 53.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccd6…4735backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc54e…9598backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f79…30e1backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…8dc9backed Yes | 79c | 31.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 73c | 30.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd66…13a1backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1081…3db0backed Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8585…58d0backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 65cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x523a…6beabacked Yes | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c84…2929backed Yes | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec4…fa49backed Yes | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -8.6wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6def…7096backed Yes | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $4600 in September?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3600 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3800 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4000 in September?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4200 in September?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4300 in September?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4500 in September?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4800 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.