Champions League · resolved market
Will AC Milan beat Red Star Belgrade?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ae4282565e0b93e13b26c405afb2a207c18e69cc0f22b1a9b540378a8a61c7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed No | 49c | 23,052$11,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,329.8 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc3…fce2backed Yes | 46c | 6,528$3,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,525.14 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd178…6703backed Yes | 78c | 4,616$3,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.61 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…756abacked Yes | 46c | 2,713$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,464.75 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +49%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed No | 18c | 2,490$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.98 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 19c | 2,405$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.7 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 20c | 2,288$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.76 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x834e…8015backed Yes | 46c | 2,055$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.97 | 210 | 37.1%78 W · 132 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…18d5backed Yes | 46c | 1,987$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Yes | 48c | 1,600$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yes | 79c | 1,546$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.57 | 206 | 67.5%139 W · 67 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 21c | 1,100$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.99 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 76c | 1,041$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.92 | 233 | 52.8%123 W · 110 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 47c | 1,031$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.23 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 46c | 999$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.46 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed No | 24c | 840.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 17c | 787$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.79 | 132 | 32.6%43 W · 89 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +172.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked No | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 19c | 503.96$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.75 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 79c | 500$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -14.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…32d0backed No | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 77c | 464.77$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.61 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 80c | 400$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf1…384dbacked Yes | 80c | 372.67$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.53 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb90e…5794backed Yes | 76c | 328.95$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.95 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 75cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 20c | 305.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x487f…30babacked No | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf64…7e54backed Yes | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 21c | 299.94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…c8c1backed Yes | 74c | 254.29$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.15 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e4c8backed Yes | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 64cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec5c…ce46backed Yes | 80c | 250.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddfa…4678backed Yes | 48c | 248.46$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39b…67e6backed Yes | 79c | 221.52$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 80c | 170.56$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4687…c40ebacked Yes | 77c | 130.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd17…42c6backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e52…ae15backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7530…311bbacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf631…e20fbacked Yes | 77c | 116.88$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd92…9e72backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe763…3d69backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e7…35b1backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 285 | 40%114 W · 171 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf847…aa05backed Yes | 79c | 92.1$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked No | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe04c…d77bbacked No | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf479…0fe3backed Yes | 77c | 80.43$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf698…c74bbacked Yes | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb018…8f4bbacked Yes | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…726cbacked Yes | 79c | 78.62$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bd…3e91backed No | 23c | 69.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c4…6b1abacked Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…c301backed Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +23%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2c…097dbacked No | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yes | 80c | 62.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c5…c68abacked No | 23c | 54.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…ddd7backed Yes | 60c | 50.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b91…27dcbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…793abacked Yes | 77c | 49.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd629…58cbbacked Yes | 79c | 43.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a79…2f30backed Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e09…3cb2backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +158.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a7…ebdfbacked Yes | 77c | 38.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6454…76ebbacked Yes | 77c | 36.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45c…40e9backed Yes | 77c | 34.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1179…710bbacked Yes | 74c | 33.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaac7…3e62backed Yes | 80c | 30.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…5d8ebacked Yes | 67c | 29.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed1f…3462backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6255…40b6backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…3e33backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…9d8cbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a3…900abacked Yes | 77c | 16.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa2…0c22backed Yes | 79c | 12.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9615…3a50backed Yes | 79c | 12.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbed…13a9backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AC Milan beat Red Star Belgrade?this page
- Will Red Star Belgrade beat AC Milan?No won
- Will the match between AC Milan and Red Star Belgrade end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.