Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will AZ Alkmaar beat Ludogorets?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x970e76fb54e3bdf94e1d70f63ba265a0e13b12f5ea31775230c2c681750b2bc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 60c | 2,436$1,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.39 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 40c | 2,002$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0129…4305backed Yes | 1c | 1,222$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 60c | 650$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 40c | 600$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 17c | 537.52$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.38 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Yes | 38c | 446.88$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.82 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 14c | 303$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.58 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…9d8cbacked Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6265…90f4backed Yes | 40c | 192.93$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked No | 12c | 125$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.4 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…d9f9backed No | 60c | 119.6$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed No | 60c | 76.54$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d69…9829backed Yes | 39c | 71.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f9…004dbacked Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd431…63bbbacked Yes | 40c | 52.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…ddd7backed Yes | 41c | 48.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4442…d5c1backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…2529backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…1962backed No | 61c | 35.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…1d4dbacked Yes | 40c | 34.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked No | 60c | 24.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2c…9cadbacked No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AZ Alkmaar beat Ludogorets?this page
- Will Ludogorets beat AZ Alkmaar?No won
- Will the match between Ludogorets and AZ Alkmaar end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.