Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Ludogorets beat AZ Alkmaar?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7edbe48a161fecb151354760a32ecc3a4c0e6e2b21d1e36389849f3a5b63d374
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0129…4305backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 20c | 360$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 70c | 338.39$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.47 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d69…9829backed Yes | 31c | 178.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.21 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa26…7acfbacked No | 69c | 173.64$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c4…8712backed No | 70c | 160$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab2…b58abacked Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfedd…bb82backed No | 69c | 15.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a32…18fabacked No | 69c | 14.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ludogorets beat AZ Alkmaar?this page
- Will AZ Alkmaar beat Ludogorets?No won
- Will the match between Ludogorets and AZ Alkmaar end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.