Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Frankfurt beat Lyon?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x443d1bbbf0dab929e44e2e80be8137adf6f5921abfbc779f978e1ae020af10fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 71c | 3,397$2,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.85 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 28c | 718.76$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc478…65ecbacked Yes | 27c | 650$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Yes | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 71c | 487.85$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.52 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…9d8cbacked Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8a…0acdbacked Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e21…4d75backed Yes | 31c | 320.32$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe763…3d69backed Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…ddd7backed Yes | 11c | 266.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68e5…c63abacked Yes | 30c | 152.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 76c | 132$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd784…26a3backed Yes | 31c | 94.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…de7bbacked Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…2d34backed Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…64a0backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd431…63bbbacked Yes | 31c | 45.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed No | 69c | 34.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Frankfurt beat Lyon?this page
- Will Lyon beat Frankfurt?Yes won
- Will the match between Lyon and Frankfurt end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.