Music · resolved market
Will The Life of a Showgirl by Taylor Swift be the top Spotify album for 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cbb9c5ae1383c90593876615bfb7b1d3d9a4280957dc3fa109f8af214048971
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 6c | 5,900$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.7 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +196.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…dfa4backed Yes | 11c | 4,719$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e81…78ffbacked Yes | 8c | 2,344$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.55 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 8c | 2,078$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 3c | 1,718$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5b…847ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,406$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 5c | 1,300$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x632d…6c35backed Yes | 9c | 1,170$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,137$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb004…dbd4backed Yes | 9c | 1,104$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 4c | 794.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 6c | 777$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe1…6c98backed Yes | 9c | 753.12$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e8…8d93backed Yes | 4c | 717.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfafb…27eabacked Yes | 4c | 699.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…fbc5backed Yes | 3c | 581.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…cae9backed Yes | 9c | 568.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 4c | 561$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 5c | 510$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd30a…7621backed Yes | 3c | 419.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes | 9c | 392.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c6…b9a7backed Yes | 8c | 383.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…a73fbacked Yes | 7c | 363.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 8c | 339.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x540e…ffedbacked Yes | 9c | 338.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…44b8backed Yes | 3c | 321$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2773…a87dbacked Yes | 9c | 254.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 7c | 250$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 6c | 229.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 163 | 34.4%56 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 227.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…4120backed Yes | 9c | 221.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x346c…3a90backed Yes | 14c | 183.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa1…9943backed Yes | 9c | 159.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90c…60a9backed Yes | 6c | 156.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…a4febacked Yes | 7c | 149.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d7…c3a2backed Yes | 9c | 119.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed No | 43c | 30.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will The Life of a Showgirl by Taylor Swift be the top Spotify album for 2025?this page
- Will DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS by Bad Bunny be the top Spotify album for 2025?Yes won
- Will GNX by Kendrick Lamar be the top Spotify album for 2025?No won
- Will Hurry Up Tomorrow by The Weeknd be the top Spotify album for 2025?No won
- Will I'm The Problem by Morgan Wallen be the top Spotify album for 2025?No won
- Will KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film) by KPop Demon Hunters Cast be the top Spotify album for 2025?No won
- Will Man's Best Friend by Sabrina Carpenter be the top Spotify album for 2025?No won
- Will Mayhem by Lady Gaga be the top Spotify album for 2025?No won
- Will Music by Playboi Carti be the top Spotify album for 2025?No won
- Will SOS by SZA be the top Spotify album for 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.