Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2e5f441b24c3bde052635a5ca1d10a7fa8740e4efb8df6b815276e887aa979d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,556,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,376,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,556,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 20c | 132,302$25,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,975.97 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 44c | 85,595$37,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,949.34 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d7…5b7bbacked Yes | 45c | 73,261$32,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,404.11 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 79c | 70,947$55,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,003.23 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 28c | 56,883$15,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,685.11 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 72c | 54,742$39,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,396.55 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 16c | 52,631$8,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,433.31 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed No | 36c | 50,077$18,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,204.78 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 25c | 48,608$12,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,275.95 | 117 | 28.2%33 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 14c | 47,412$6,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,551.83 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…3a9bbacked No | 35c | 42,656$14,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,943 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 63c | 38,448$24,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,079.04 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…5a0ebacked No | 61c | 35,998$21,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,943.07 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe8…b7e4backed No | 29c | 35,811$10,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,389.83 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6e…f73dbacked No | 33c | 35,000$11,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,505.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…5b87backed Yes | 58c | 30,015$17,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,483.17 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 20c | 28,574$5,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,600.67 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 24c | 28,082$6,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,856.14 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3656…b4bbbacked No | 16c | 26,971$4,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,192.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 28c | 26,900$7,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,421.61 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 39c | 25,613$10,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,013.36 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4817…6bdbbacked No | 19c | 25,092$4,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,828 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 30c | 24,456$7,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,307.73 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 25c | 23,474$5,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,907.38 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked Yes | 72c | 23,399$16,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,562.98 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 63c | 21,158$13,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,743.88 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 12c | 19,091$2,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,269.04 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed No | 15c | 18,290$2,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,694.42 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 71c | 18,276$12,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,291.64 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…bd86backed No | 17c | 16,211$2,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,773.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 52c | 15,904$8,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,577.29 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 14c | 15,231$2,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,189.29 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…72ebbacked Yes | 67c | 15,000$10,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,978.95 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefe9…60fabacked No | 52c | 14,421$7,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,556.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe140…78d4backed No | 31c | 14,092$4,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,407.1 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 68c | 13,912$9,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,483.84 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes | 37c | 13,325$4,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,345.12 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 79c | 13,200$10,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,763.73 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…819ebacked No | 60c | 12,891$7,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,755.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.52per pick | 72cpaid | -74%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 35c | 12,668$4,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,450.71 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 13c | 12,283$1,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,653.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 79c | 12,176$9,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,513.66 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc158…f3cabacked No | 55c | 11,944$6,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,594.69 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed No | 57c | 11,800$6,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,684.78 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 38c | 11,444$4,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,349.3 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked No | 34c | 11,317$3,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,798.6 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 30c | 11,216$3,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,370.84 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Yes | 61c | 10,916$6,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,239 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 65c | 10,869$7,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,810.22 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…a643backed No | 43c | 10,786$4,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,642.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…b088backed No | 19c | 10,758$2,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,084.71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0e…434ebacked No | 47c | 10,517$4,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,895.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed Yes | 36c | 10,443$3,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,664.45 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 20c | 10,224$2,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,016.86 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c17…83c8backed No | 32c | 9,896$3,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,139.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 64c | 9,665$6,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,491.83 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…2354backed No | 21c | 9,632$2,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,063.16 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1275…203cbacked Yes | 65c | 9,500$6,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,363.87 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…8701backed Yes | 78c | 9,450$7,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,048.17 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 1c | 9,300$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 96 | 4.2%4 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 68c | 9,197$6,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,920.49 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 34c | 9,177$3,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,128.12 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed No | 6c | 9,034$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.32 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 52c | 8,721$4,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,162.32 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7379…79f0backed No | 38c | 8,600$3,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,274.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f2…566dbacked No | 24c | 8,390$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c4…6648backed Yes | 78c | 8,194$6,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,792.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed No | 24c | 7,687$1,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,839.22 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 63c | 7,686$4,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,882.16 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a5…cdbfbacked Yes | 53c | 7,649$4,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,612.49 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 74c | 7,566$5,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,004.05 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1f…1f2dbacked No | 57c | 7,444$4,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,235 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…b841backed Yes | 73c | 7,251$5,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,993.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 66c | 7,077$4,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,377.98 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 24c | 6,827$1,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,621.68 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes | 71c | 6,801$4,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,984.13 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…7c46backed No | 50c | 6,650$3,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,338.15 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Yes | 51c | 6,503$3,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,158.95 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed No | 25c | 6,487$1,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,652.58 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8613…59f0backed No | 47c | 6,469$3,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,032.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 35c | 6,356$2,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,216.69 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…5b74backed Yes | 67c | 6,263$4,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,083.31 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0521…cc4abacked Yes | 72c | 6,216$4,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,740.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 65c | 6,127$3,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,164.9 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked No | 28c | 6,098$1,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,681.88 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x249c…2783backed No | 16c | 5,926$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.47 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeba7…fea3backed No | 30c | 5,774$1,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,734.75 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 8c | 5,752$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.41 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…8d6bbacked Yes | 49c | 5,557$2,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,808.37 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 26c | 5,538$1,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,426.98 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda49…964bbacked No | 31c | 5,458$1,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,705 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50ff…e0b8backed No | 54c | 5,386$2,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,925.58 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6634…a779backed No | 24c | 5,265$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.81 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x433a…71e7backed No | 19c | 5,042$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.52 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ce…f74dbacked Yes | 54c | 5,011$2,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,287.31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 37cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes | 77c | 5,000$3,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…cecebacked No | 41c | 5,000$2,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,037.35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe60e…760abacked Yes | 75c | 5,000$3,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked No | 26c | 4,980$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,308.52 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed No | 33c | 4,903$1,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,612.92 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.