Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during October press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1073297098b4dcfeb5741797d7e3a0873ffe7874b14a99d5f6eefb83df70a49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 253 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,625$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe180…889bbacked Yes | 56c | 1,478$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed No | 53c | 1,463$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.45 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e36…aa76backed Yes | 10c | 1,400$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 51c | 1,252$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.77 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd02e…4cf2backed Yes | 13c | 1,228$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 13c | 1,214$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.75 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ec…13acbacked Yes | 4c | 1,185$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 45c | 1,128$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.59 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ee…4e39backed No | 49c | 1,015$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 1c | 867.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 43c | 818.66$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.14 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 44c | 806.04$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.07 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c9…b44ebacked No | 52c | 775.71$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a19…5d40backed No | 47c | 770$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc975…2c68backed Yes | 6c | 674.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes | 46c | 669.12$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.74 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd783…ec1ebacked Yes | 9c | 659.92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…5bbfbacked No | 63c | 634.3$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7355…12efbacked No | 50c | 604.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.62 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82a8…79fcbacked No | 62c | 577.35$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…7fc0backed Yes | 59c | 563$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 9c | 558.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Yes | 43c | 550$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 49c | 544.52$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.25 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…88a5backed Yes | 13c | 507.14$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53d…2911backed Yes | 13c | 491.15$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa9…e2dabacked Yes | 4c | 470.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x560d…a298backed No | 54c | 421.2$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82c…620abacked No | 48c | 414.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c20…64a2backed Yes | 8c | 387.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d11…a3b8backed No | 45c | 379.96$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.3 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…f003backed No | 74c | 376.81$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.61 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bc…80f7backed Yes | 55c | 367.89$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x232d…d2f7backed No | 73c | 360.67$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c95…0ae2backed No | 48c | 351.43$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 46c | 339.65$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.91 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked No | 48c | 334.81$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 50c | 315.48$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.73 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 49c | 310.62$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.65 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee08…6923backed Yes | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8768…dd9bbacked No | 47c | 284.95$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbe…d688backed Yes | 53c | 280$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 47c | 268.94$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.58 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e92…26debacked Yes | 60c | 254.66$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00be…5acabacked No | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…409fbacked Yes | 52c | 249.98$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…4d1fbacked Yes | 42c | 249.87$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4d…1a55backed Yes | 25c | 235.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 42c | 231.71$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.44 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…8529backed Yes | 47c | 211.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cb…8f46backed No | 48c | 210.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…7d32backed No | 49c | 208.25$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.45 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 56c | 206.8$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.81 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…052abacked No | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x597e…cd70backed No | 72c | 200$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…fa1bbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30aa…2bddbacked Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a97…40e1backed No | 73c | 199.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 45c | 198.64$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5697…c7bebacked No | 52c | 193.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.41 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2195…40b6backed Yes | 53c | 190$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa794…e7d8backed No | 54c | 185.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…87b9backed No | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…3570backed No | 56c | 178.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2574…83dbbacked Yes | 57c | 176.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 21c | 176.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked No | 47c | 176.36$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.03 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed No | 38c | 173.65$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 45c | 171.81$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.31 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…4513backed Yes | 60c | 167.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…4d48backed Yes | 54c | 165.4$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbe…b616backed Yes | 61c | 162.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 31c | 159.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +27%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 57c | 150.23$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.17 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d5…a746backed Yes | 58c | 140.72$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…fd0dbacked No | 43c | 138.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1302…71fabacked Yes | 52c | 126.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373f…1878backed No | 79c | 124.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…228fbacked No | 52c | 124.79$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.79 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…3a9fbacked No | 41c | 120.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…9a43backed Yes | 62c | 117.74$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7b…a54bbacked Yes | 26c | 116.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -62%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…ea3fbacked Yes | 52c | 112.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9514…0dd6backed No | 80c | 109.72$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f56…9302backed No | 47c | 105.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 105.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c03…eac9backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…ff4bbacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b9…ea98backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4208…1094backed Yes | 21c | 99.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c17…9edcbacked Yes | 44c | 98.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef7…1e3dbacked Yes | 31c | 95.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 48c | 94.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during October press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Dissent" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Edging" 3+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Feedback" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Mandate" 6+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Meeting" 9+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Possibility" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Stagflation" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 25+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Update" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Variable" during October press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.