Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Stagflation" during October press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a50fa9443996a997425fc3038bd1a662b480b1a85adfdc780a572c258b1d5ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82cb…f46dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,807$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 18c | 478.15$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.07 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 75c | 320.65$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.92 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 15c | 303.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc067…0eb9backed Yes | 41c | 289.7$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…4d48backed No | 72c | 227.9$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 9c | 201.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed No | 74c | 127.87$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20e7…ba07backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e30…3adfbacked No | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80bb…e737backed Yes | 27c | 96.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5242…f82abacked Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 15c | 94.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 77c | 79.61$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 18c | 57.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 78c | 52.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed No | 77c | 42.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 70c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…3595backed Yes | 29c | 39.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x807b…d059backed Yes | 33c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf01…a178backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…26dfbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f4…5fd8backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…c55abacked No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 65c | 16.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1739…1263backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8551…1b79backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Stagflation" during October press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Dissent" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Edging" 3+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Feedback" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Mandate" 6+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Meeting" 9+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Possibility" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 25+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Update" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Variable" during October press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.