Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during October press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb45546db34162ddd31f9fe5c2763ab66f82fac34a5a3cd7b148340121d23d572
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $335,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $293,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $335,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53e5…6177backed No | 2c | 44,643$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.08 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87bd…4c30backed No | 1c | 21,187$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 2c | 18,445$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.3 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 2c | 15,711$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.09 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked No | 2c | 10,271$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.77 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -91%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 2c | 9,325$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.16 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 2c | 9,138$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.69 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed No | 2c | 9,045$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.95 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 2c | 7,962$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.24 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0a…8340backed No | 2c | 7,319$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked No | 2c | 6,484$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.05 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe591…9fc8backed No | 3c | 5,112$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3dd…5300backed No | 2c | 4,301$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5697…c7bebacked No | 2c | 4,190$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2d88backed No | 2c | 4,167$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 3,427$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.52 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…85dabacked No | 3c | 3,200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 2c | 3,037$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 2c | 2,882$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 2c | 2,843$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 2c | 2,637$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…ea3fbacked No | 3c | 2,432$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.53 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9da5…61d5backed No | 2c | 2,346$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…ff50backed No | 3c | 2,250$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…2a59backed No | 2c | 2,111$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…6112backed No | 2c | 2,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbf…8548backed No | 3c | 1,983$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7287…56d5backed No | 2c | 1,918$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked No | 3c | 1,827$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d16…4528backed No | 2c | 1,821$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45b…8243backed No | 4c | 1,781$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd046…98b1backed No | 3c | 1,732$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked No | 3c | 1,725$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7952…15f4backed No | 2c | 1,667$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf9…cdc6backed No | 3c | 1,654$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…37b6backed No | 2c | 1,610$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d5…a2e5backed No | 2c | 1,500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…c051backed No | 2c | 1,500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked No | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df0…7791backed No | 2c | 1,477$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca9…e423backed No | 2c | 1,333$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a63…4431backed No | 2c | 1,313$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…5e17backed No | 2c | 1,305$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked No | 2c | 1,300$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -72%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 5c | 1,255$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf312…beb0backed No | 2c | 1,228$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 2c | 1,115$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…ee4bbacked No | 2c | 1,111$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed No | 2c | 1,092$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2055…4542backed No | 3c | 1,055$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed No | 2c | 1,049$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +27%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…750bbacked No | 3c | 1,034$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c84…4e36backed No | 2c | 1,034$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…ff4bbacked No | 2c | 1,018$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…3a0dbacked No | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked No | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 2c | 981.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ee…a1debacked No | 3c | 900$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…797cbacked No | 2c | 900$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc88…a949backed No | 2c | 885.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed No | 2c | 879.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked No | 2c | 877$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82cb…f46dbacked No | 2c | 824.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc740…a08ebacked No | 2c | 812.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c7…2868backed No | 3c | 800$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe480…ae5fbacked No | 3c | 794.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c42…66b5backed No | 3c | 786.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…3b5fbacked No | 2c | 704.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb4…abe5backed No | 2c | 602.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed No | 2c | 600$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb661…734ebacked No | 2c | 590$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39a0…77d8backed No | 2c | 557.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b4…17c8backed No | 2c | 547.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa80…79ebbacked No | 4c | 533.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 3c | 515.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x936b…fa99backed No | 3c | 511.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc91…99c0backed No | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…40e2backed No | 3c | 460$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793d…04a4backed No | 2c | 452.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65a6…43adbacked No | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…e388backed No | 3c | 339.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2162…9287backed No | 4c | 276.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa52a…5b16backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during October press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Dissent" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Edging" 3+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Feedback" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Mandate" 6+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Meeting" 9+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Possibility" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Stagflation" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 25+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Update" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Variable" during October press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.