TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during October press conference?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$335,006
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$293,959

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $335,006 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x53e5…6177backed No2c44,643$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.081631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-45.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87bd…4c30backed No1c21,187$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No2c18,445$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.319026.3%50 W · 140 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No2c15,711$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.096717.9%12 W · 55 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-65.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked No2c10,271$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.77185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid-91%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No2c9,325$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.168626.7%23 W · 63 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No2c9,138$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.696616.7%11 W · 55 L+0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid+51.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x072a…3e85backed No2c9,045$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.952532%8 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No2c7,962$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.2412941.1%53 W · 76 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea0a…8340backed No2c7,319$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.78616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked No2c6,484$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.054712.8%6 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe591…9fc8backed No3c5,112$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3dd…5300backed No2c4,301$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5697…c7bebacked No2c4,190$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001118.2%2 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-54.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ea5…2d88backed No2c4,167$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c3,427$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.523187.2%23 W · 295 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-75%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cee…85dabacked No3c3,200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22cc…ef97backed No2c3,037$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.166025%15 W · 45 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked No2c2,882$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.79365.6%2 W · 34 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-81.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No2c2,843$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.89960%0 W · 96 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No2c2,637$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.18333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x145a…ea3fbacked No3c2,432$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.531030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-49.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9da5…61d5backed No2c2,346$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb1b…ff50backed No3c2,250$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5548…2a59backed No2c2,111$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50110%0 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f22…6112backed No2c2,000$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dbf…8548backed No3c1,983$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7287…56d5backed No2c1,918$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked No3c1,827$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0640%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d16…4528backed No2c1,821$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.71520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-74.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb45b…8243backed No4c1,781$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd046…98b1backed No3c1,732$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked No3c1,725$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7952…15f4backed No2c1,667$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadf9…cdc6backed No3c1,654$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4340%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2d7…37b6backed No2c1,610$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03d5…a2e5backed No2c1,500$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0238…c051backed No2c1,500$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked No2c1,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3df0…7791backed No2c1,477$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ca9…e423backed No2c1,333$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a63…4431backed No2c1,313$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7772…5e17backed No2c1,305$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90bf…99ebbacked No2c1,300$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.821915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid-72%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked No5c1,255$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.32623.1%6 W · 20 L-4.1wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-61.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf312…beb0backed No2c1,228$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No2c1,115$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.82020%4 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-68.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x40ac…ee4bbacked No2c1,111$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.221127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb43…9d70backed No2c1,092$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-85.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2055…4542backed No3c1,055$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.38714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-79.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed No2c1,049$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+27%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xceb1…750bbacked No3c1,034$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c84…4e36backed No2c1,034$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-3.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c3f…ff4bbacked No2c1,018$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.31520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-57.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed No2c1,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152917.2%5 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-38.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x98af…3a0dbacked No3c1,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25260%0 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6478…548fbacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-54.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68db…e12bbacked No2c1,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163225%8 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No2c981.75$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.17611.6%1 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-96.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27ee…a1debacked No3c900$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-60.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8726…797cbacked No2c900$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc88…a949backed No2c885.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed No2c879.8$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1980%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked No2c877$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.291118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-15.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x82cb…f46dbacked No2c824.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc740…a08ebacked No2c812.34$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31c7…2868backed No3c800$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe480…ae5fbacked No3c794.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-45.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c42…66b5backed No3c786.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa6…3b5fbacked No2c704.14$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebb4…abe5backed No2c602.37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7870%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x932b…64c0backed No2c600$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.12412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-62.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb661…734ebacked No2c590$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39a0…77d8backed No2c557.22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95b4…17c8backed No2c547.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa80…79ebbacked No4c533.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No3c515.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x936b…fa99backed No3c511.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc91…99c0backed No3c500$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.570%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xede5…40e2backed No3c460$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.18633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x793d…04a4backed No2c452.17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65a6…43adbacked No3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe759…e388backed No3c339.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8680%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2162…9287backed No4c276.36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa52a…5b16backed No5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.