TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in October?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$52,422
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$54,142

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,422 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc432…cb9dbacked No21c3,974$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc15…23a2backed No16c3,683$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes76c3,236$2,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.476459.4%38 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No28c3,232$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.816230.6%19 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+29.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes57c2,999$1,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,297.9813145.8%60 W · 71 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+6.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No51c2,697$1,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,382.3617452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No9c2,008$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.191,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed Yes70c1,534$1,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.034528.9%13 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-55.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No20c1,500$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.2432626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe559…f88cbacked Yes80c1,254$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33ad…e148backed Yes55c999.4$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.711782.4%14 W · 3 L+5.0wins+0.29per pick53cpaid+55.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No4c917.37$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6928320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes62c857.1$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.3518746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4221…7364backed No41c821.19$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.5790%0 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes78c641.04$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.22673.1%19 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b0e…0b82backed No51c593.25$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-60%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes54c547.07$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.58944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No40c527.93$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.616144.7%72 W · 89 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6752…fafbbacked Yes52c508.44$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.825653.6%30 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc1c1…0cd6backed No24c454.99$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked No20c402.89$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.515614.3%8 W · 48 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No18c393.31$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4833627.4%92 W · 244 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed Yes68c366.25$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.82951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6990…3f6abacked No60c364$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbec2…05f9backed No6c360.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes80c350$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.56253.2%33 W · 29 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes48c322.91$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.2613138.9%51 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed No31c300$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933831.6%12 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+157.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes65c281.68$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.5919435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cea…f32abacked No58c280$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.57934.2%27 W · 52 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+16.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes66c262.43$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.439831.6%31 W · 67 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes57c260.93$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.6210330.1%31 W · 72 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-40%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa794…e7d8backed No23c257.27$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-60.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fab…01e9backed No18c244.03$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed No68c219.88$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.755743.9%25 W · 32 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes58c214.59$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.1514230.3%43 W · 99 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x245c…2486backed Yes61c203.93$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.313959%23 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed No17c186.94$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.185129.4%15 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb43…9d70backed No28c180.83$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58a3…3490backed No57c176.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-74.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked No14c172$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.522425%6 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes41c164.88$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.2810127.7%28 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed No30c164.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503855.3%21 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc42f…78a0backed Yes55c157.02$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.122729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-56.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5372…4b1fbacked Yes69c153.14$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.47966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-11%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No32c150.49$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4223543.8%103 W · 132 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95d1…210ebacked No15c135.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-66.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes55c135$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.7537844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed Yes54c134.27$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.233663.9%23 W · 13 L+7.0wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+75.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed Yes69c121.06$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.26256.5%35 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked No13c112.15$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.94914.3%7 W · 42 L-6.7wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-54.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1f25…4d4bbacked No37c110.37$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.34250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e88…bd30backed Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754856.3%27 W · 21 L+6.7wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+39%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014125.5%36 W · 105 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffdd…c06fbacked Yes43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8013216.7%22 W · 110 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid+19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018445.1%83 W · 101 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes57c99.99$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.513455.2%74 W · 60 L+0.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes62c81.78$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.397343.8%32 W · 41 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+20.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x68f3…776cbacked No29c73.21$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.97650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+50.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9f4…f4f1backed Yes75c70$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.29560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6f7…f858backed Yes59c68.24$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde53…0e07backed Yes61c68$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.521656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No16c66.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9536527.1%99 W · 266 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2fb…5215backed No33c65.02$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.29944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-21.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No44c63.71$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.167147.9%34 W · 37 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f63…6643backed No39c63$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.572634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.9wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-45.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6c69…9e30backed No35c60.56$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb166…7ba1backed Yes65c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb882…e13ebacked No26c58.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes71c58$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.918229.3%24 W · 58 L-11.1wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-40.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5903…f218backed No41c53.55$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.963852.6%20 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4653…bcc6backed No25c51$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…c856backed Yes59c50.81$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae69…65c9backed Yes53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.51136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-28.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x19ac…cd93backed No47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca1e…75edbacked No46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234353.5%23 W · 20 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+24.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5eda…d453backed Yes48c49.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+30.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6551…9afcbacked No24c48.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes59c47.01$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.234957.1%28 W · 21 L+8.3wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+47.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes35c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2644111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes73c36.55$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.83195.3%1 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick22cpaid-92.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf593…f07ebacked Yes55c35.91$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x859d…e5c6backed Yes63c35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.85666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30bc…ea78backed Yes40c35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.11637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked Yes60c32.16$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.825474.1%40 W · 14 L+8.4wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+22.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x05ec…7158backed Yes62c31.94$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.14450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bba…3e07backed Yes49c30.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd16c…9100backed Yes50c30.1$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.05771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89bc…dddcbacked Yes53c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.11855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcff1…ad9cbacked Yes58c29.31$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ef6…6c60backed No69c28.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid+96.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked Yes65c25.49$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.92825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-47.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe13b…84afbacked Yes64c23.4$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd229…7a3fbacked No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c32…9ef8backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick66cpaid-66%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x756d…75e6backed Yes63c19.13$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.082045%9 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-31.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9119…d179backed Yes63c19.11$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.071464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b91…eec9backed No64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.