TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in October?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,736
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,007

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,736 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3e53…ba80backed Yes6c884.24$51 inLost-$50.971711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-68.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes8c860$72 inLost-$7218746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes39c578.44$226 inLost-$226.0141238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes10c311$30 inLost-$29.9919435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1122…2e16backed Yes4c268.84$12 inLost-$11.63333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb20b…8da0backed Yes77c257.14$198 inLost-$1983225%8 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-61.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0665…4c8fbacked Yes4c250$10 inLost-$101428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid+75.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes8c164.82$12 inLost-$12.4837844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7f5b…b993backed Yes77c81.91$63 inLost-$63.071010%1 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-87.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed No80c75$60 inWon+$1513455.2%74 W · 60 L+0.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed Yes38c42$16 inLost-$15.967147.9%34 W · 37 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x852a…3188backed Yes30c34.85$10 inLost-$10.364772.3%34 W · 13 L+9.0wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+37.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x1db5…c498backed Yes75c14.67$11 inLost-$11520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-73.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.