TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in October?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$354,028
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$316,354

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $354,028 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 213 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No7c31,943$2,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,172.9833313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed No0c19,118$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5150%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd281…af47backed No21c13,741$2,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,858.6240%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c9,761$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.561,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa758…0c98backed No15c8,307$1,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,252.28333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No26c8,055$2,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,114.381421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick37cpaid-71.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked No16c7,604$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195.58520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-71.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No3c7,110$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.718425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc254…3f73backed Yes79c6,712$5,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,396.052646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-29.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b11…003fbacked No7c6,496$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No3c5,210$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.865832.8%19 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b0c…6ac4backed No0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes76c4,762$3,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.912673.1%19 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes70c4,659$3,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,407.49128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.22per pick31cpaid-88.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa4d0…91acbacked No6c4,314$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5372…4b1fbacked Yes74c4,199$3,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,078.76966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-11%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes63c3,999$2,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,479.9813145.8%60 W · 71 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+6.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No24c3,803$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.125834.5%20 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No17c3,175$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.0414135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37ef…a37abacked No3c3,138$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.843043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+21.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x387a…8eaebacked No14c3,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d2f…1d1ebacked No7c2,988$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27b8…b68cbacked No8c2,934$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.651729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe795…6068backed No3c2,719$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7080%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed No21c2,517$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.31616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-55%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No5c2,323$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.863221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes78c2,212$1,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.666230.6%19 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+29.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No17c2,132$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.7399629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb57…b165backed No5c2,054$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e0c…6b3cbacked No4c1,948$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.274938.8%19 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a51…3e59backed No5c1,840$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf30…2c10backed No11c1,802$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x990b…1fd7backed No6c1,795$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…c2f4backed No4c1,757$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.4630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No23c1,570$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.98195.3%1 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick22cpaid-92.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe587…9d4dbacked No20c1,502$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes34c1,500$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.4537844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed No8c1,400$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.384240.5%17 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ecf…fc09backed No9c1,273$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+30.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed No5c1,253$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602814.3%4 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…f008backed No24c1,229$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes77c1,171$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.3218746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked No9c1,125$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005111.8%6 W · 45 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-42.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc15…23a2backed No6c1,040$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7b…154bbacked No6c998.81$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.932524%6 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcce5…bdafbacked No5c935.3$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6003…e0f8backed No32c845.87$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No24c783.9$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.0617633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x245c…2486backed No41c759.08$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.933959%23 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3ffe…e125backed Yes77c737.01$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.993964.1%25 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes76c732.05$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.2518445.1%83 W · 101 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed Yes79c712.14$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.554557.8%26 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b1a…5abfbacked No5c689.04$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3340%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x173d…dc87backed No8c681$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbec2…05f9backed No6c670.38$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40ac…ee4bbacked Yes73c665.99$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.931030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-52.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb57e…eeb2backed Yes71c656.03$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.94580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d1…ff0abacked No3c653.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed Yes79c632.61$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.376256.5%35 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x949e…b13abacked No26c607.28$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.13333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-14.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes77c600$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13816643.4%72 W · 94 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes73c574.94$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.9717452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x659c…a086backed Yes77c572.46$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.461546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick61cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6865…9e80backed No28c559.88$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b80…81e2backed No25c558.53$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e0e…a433backed No4c549.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe792…ffe4backed No21c536.03$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No9c510.77$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5769634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x52c2…65a0backed No5c504.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5207…686bbacked Yes71c500$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33ad…e148backed Yes54c499.35$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.881782.4%14 W · 3 L+5.0wins+0.29per pick53cpaid+55.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xaea0…8f66backed No19c426.54$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5015…68e0backed No8c424.59$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No5c420.04$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.643435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fd2…982dbacked No24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f93…6197backed No24c416.66$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes70c410.69$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.8813455.2%74 W · 60 L+0.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f21…3d6ebacked No25c408$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick33cpaid-82.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked Yes73c400.49$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.755474.1%40 W · 14 L+8.4wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+22.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8b50…4638backed No15c399.65$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6050%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf203…f630backed No18c393$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c97…d4d6backed No6c387.33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa66b…0b8bbacked No15c373.45$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.552114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18f9…f4d5backed No20c353.48$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbd0…35abbacked No6c346.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x681b…bf35backed No42c344.68$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.15955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+34.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2a3…c8debacked No30c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed Yes60c328.44$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.442951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa557…d95cbacked Yes80c326.12$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.432572%18 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+7.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8572…6331backed No4c321.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf38b…93b0backed No6c319.64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ba…1c3cbacked No7c314.57$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad46…65a7backed No23c313.08$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.881637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e78…e415backed No26c313.05$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804216.7%7 W · 35 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-34.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7f13…d602backed No19c307.76$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.93425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-41.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd19b…8fd9backed Yes58c303.62$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.62250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeefe…6c44backed Yes49c300.24$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.92475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+25.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes78c292.95$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.583989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56ae…c382backed Yes63c289.88$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.05250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4542…8477backed No7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.