TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: France (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Franceof France, Iraq
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,158,095
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,465,868

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,158,095 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9d36…0e68backed Iraq43c3,531,306$1,508,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,508,228.651225%3 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-56.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa4b1…5143backed France58c3,449,471$2,000,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,449,374.381546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c6a…0f47backed France58c1,724,280$1,000,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724,199.51546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Iraq43c1,051,994$448,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448,274.5677152.8%407 W · 364 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Iraq42c858,013$356,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356,300.244,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e25…d49ebacked Iraq41c586,289$240,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240,378.673360.6%20 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+20%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc41d…74fdbacked Iraq41c474,640$194,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194,602.2514139%55 W · 86 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed France58c406,163$234,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171,587.9674752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6754…e3bcbacked France59c373,500$220,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153,13515456.5%87 W · 67 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed France58c247,239$142,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104,681.791,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed France59c229,093$134,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94,147.722,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked France57c213,537$121,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92,091.742345.6%193 W · 230 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Iraq41c177,889$73,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73,561.617050%35 W · 35 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Iraq41c169,027$70,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70,113.33,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x709e…66f5backed France57c164,472$93,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70,722.9611642.2%49 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3c7…c83bbacked Iraq41c150,000$61,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,5006448.4%31 W · 33 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24c5…c428backed Iraq42c123,397$51,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,826.811513.3%2 W · 13 L-4.7wins-0.31per pick45cpaid-75.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Iraq41c106,224$43,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,725.211647.4%55 W · 61 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Iraq42c104,209$43,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,507.0718738%71 W · 116 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d2e…896dbacked France57c100,000$57,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,00014843.2%64 W · 84 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e2…9dcbbacked France58c85,928$50,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,928.289045.6%41 W · 49 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked France56c71,429$40,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,428.5718740.6%76 W · 111 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6d1…286abacked Iraq41c71,425$29,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,513.2217447.1%82 W · 92 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x361b…74febacked Iraq44c71,087$31,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,256.9151032.5%166 W · 344 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x322f…ba1fbacked France53c67,709$35,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,976.633253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee0b…e6d4backed Iraq41c66,100$27,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,100.936634.8%23 W · 43 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed France59c57,126$33,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,500.4117949.2%88 W · 91 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99a7…fc82backed Iraq44c55,555$24,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,444.073661.1%22 W · 14 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+19.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Iraq58c54,539$31,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,399.852,27139.5%896 W · 1,375 L+10.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eb7…3cd4backed France56c53,571$30,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,571.437035.7%25 W · 45 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x83b4…23febacked France57c50,470$28,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,702.15745.6%26 W · 31 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdac7…6d53backed France57c50,001$28,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,500.229131.9%29 W · 62 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed France58c50,000$29,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,0009451.1%48 W · 46 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Iraq46c50,000$23,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,999.9827039.6%107 W · 163 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked France59c50,000$29,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,499.9523942.3%101 W · 138 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed France59c49,600$29,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,33613235.6%47 W · 85 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36a7…b6e9backed Iraq41c47,222$19,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,361.168046.3%37 W · 43 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cc0…5765backed France43c47,207$20,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,707.746152.5%32 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18b8…c368backed France55c46,601$25,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,090.7917733.9%60 W · 117 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09d2…26aebacked France57c38,105$21,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,454.644129.3%12 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x62ca…1760backed Iraq57c38,002$21,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,522.1725844.6%115 W · 143 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa3c…3111backed France59c33,898$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,898.314341.9%18 W · 25 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-15.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21df…7078backed Iraq41c29,910$12,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,358.35837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c5…6930backed Iraq41c29,654$12,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,158.146053.3%32 W · 28 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea48…c596backed Iraq41c29,437$12,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,109.411428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-36.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x829c…6cf6backed France48c28,259$13,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,671.732218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-57.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Iraq44c28,159$12,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,374.911,26247.5%600 W · 662 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c0…1bedbacked Iraq42c27,000$11,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,3406050%30 W · 30 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+56.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x30e1…8be4backed France54c25,611$13,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,779.914233.3%14 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked Iraq43c25,500$10,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,9655352.8%28 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3607…d3ffbacked France55c25,075$13,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,235.37475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Iraq43c24,509$10,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,595.8350243.4%218 W · 284 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1171…98dcbacked Iraq41c24,360$9,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,9187143.7%31 W · 40 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82ba…afeabacked France56c24,015$13,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,514.7815337.3%57 W · 96 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x93eb…c387backed Iraq41c23,760$9,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,741.68349.4%41 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Iraq43c23,748$10,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,173.747643.3%206 W · 270 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xceed…f8eebacked France55c23,500$13,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,489.968158%47 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Iraq43c22,999$9,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,878.0848441.9%203 W · 281 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x02af…aaa9backed Iraq41c22,546$9,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,243.8613448.5%65 W · 69 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x639c…31e2backed Iraq41c22,076$9,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,0515054%27 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Iraq43c22,068$9,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,472.5547144.8%211 W · 260 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…e7a9backed Iraq43c21,569$9,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,263.9644144%194 W · 247 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed France57c21,146$11,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,160.492,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed France57c21,030$12,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,945.568,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02aa…f99bbacked France57c20,822$11,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,953.591850%9 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Iraq41c20,476$8,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,416.5428162.6%176 W · 105 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55a1…db28backed France55c20,000$11,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,0002748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19b5…c0aebacked Iraq42c20,000$8,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,4007757.1%44 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked France58c20,000$11,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,40016957.4%97 W · 72 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x355d…65e0backed France43c20,000$8,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,399.992560%15 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+24%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1af3…b3b4backed Iraq42c19,000$7,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,98020333.5%68 W · 135 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Iraq45c18,954$8,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,529.31,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Iraq44c18,499$8,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,096.0536031.7%114 W · 246 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfed1…eedbbacked Iraq42c18,000$7,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,5607448.6%36 W · 38 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf298…ada5backed France57c18,000$10,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,8206943.5%30 W · 39 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-22.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed France56c17,900$10,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,87614045.7%64 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10a6…4d8bbacked Iraq52c17,225$9,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,005.7364446.4%299 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Iraq41c15,616$6,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,471.191,39046.3%644 W · 746 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fce…63d5backed Iraq41c15,508$6,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,430.121,31348.9%642 W · 671 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb225…3d54backed France50c14,185$7,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,037.269525.3%24 W · 71 L-0.3wins0.00per pick26cpaid-22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6e4…ce20backed Iraq57c14,012$7,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,986.8320%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed France65c13,666$8,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,843.0517642%74 W · 102 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b88…8f33backed France56c13,500$7,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,9406149.2%30 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6b…96e1backed Iraq4c13,094$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.7825821.3%55 W · 203 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99c5…ebc7backed France55c13,000$7,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,8504938.8%19 W · 30 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-18.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Iraq42c12,591$5,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,247.571,94135.5%690 W · 1,251 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa18c…d792backed Iraq56c12,490$6,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,994.6224058.8%141 W · 99 L+19.8wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfa5f…6bfebacked Iraq44c12,475$5,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,489.0820844.7%93 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcfb…efc0backed France57c12,281$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,280.77129.6%21 W · 50 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-37.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd30…f316backed Iraq43c12,262$5,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,272.712729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-40.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Iraq43c12,163$5,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,251.4247442.8%203 W · 271 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Iraq42c11,887$4,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,998.6271638.4%275 W · 441 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x896e…53f2backed Iraq43c11,628$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00017443.1%75 W · 99 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3da…7a7ebacked Iraq55c11,451$6,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,3521127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae2b…90eabacked France49c11,102$5,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,681.5220633%68 W · 138 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7a4…e371backed France44c10,937$4,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,124.754235.7%15 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Iraq42c10,471$4,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,374.491,04443.7%456 W · 588 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ae1…1e7ebacked France56c10,172$5,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,474.1522846.9%107 W · 121 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8d9…48a6backed Iraq41c10,000$4,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,1008743.7%38 W · 49 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21a2…5f83backed France56c10,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,400837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick25cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.