Fifa International · resolved market
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x386e5500c152a594d085d069cf109dc5c049bf5e4b57f390433dcf5d5a468aba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $168,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $208,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 13c | 30,304$3,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,848.84 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 15c | 27,547$4,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,024.08 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 13c | 6,736$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.09 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…1183backed Under | 14c | 6,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 98 | 23.5%23 W · 75 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 5c | 3,767$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.95 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b7…21fbbacked Under | 20c | 2,541$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.53 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…5726backed Over | 80c | 1,473$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.45 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f8…003dbacked Under | 1c | 1,075$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 94 | 8.5%8 W · 86 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3a…64b7backed Under | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 129 | 47.3%61 W · 68 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 13c | 999.97$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1,075 | 45.2%486 W · 589 L | +41.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8188…b171backed Under | 14c | 977.8$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.89 | 188 | 39.9%75 W · 113 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 13c | 745.7$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…4f22backed Over | 78c | 651.05$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.23 | 184 | 65.8%121 W · 63 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…f1b7backed Under | 15c | 625.39$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.37 | 950 | 37.5%356 W · 594 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 11c | 573.23$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfb…f1b7backed Under | 8c | 520.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 782 | 34.3%268 W · 514 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c1…473ebacked Under | 15c | 504$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 513 | 15.6%80 W · 433 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71df…9aa0backed Under | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59d3…c92fbacked Under | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…9af5backed Over | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…ac23backed Under | 16c | 499.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 957 | 39.5%378 W · 579 L | -18.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 12c | 412.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Under | 14c | 311.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 1,390 | 46.3%644 W · 746 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5f…f7aebacked Under | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Under | 14c | 244.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 1,313 | 48.9%642 W · 671 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…cfdabacked Under | 18c | 196$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 79 | 11.4%9 W · 70 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7a…751abacked Under | 16c | 178.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 732 | 34.6%253 W · 479 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 13c | 155.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 1,945 | 42.7%831 W · 1,114 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 15c | 154.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Under | 17c | 123.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 200 | 31%62 W · 138 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f8…d6f7backed Under | 18c | 109.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x414c…80c7backed Under | 14c | 102.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6339…141ebacked Under | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9448…b72ebacked Under | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 25.9%22 W · 63 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…64a7backed Under | 21c | 48.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…81c2backed Over | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 68cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5this page
- France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
- France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
- France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- France vs. Iraq: France 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
- France vs. Iraq: France O/U 0.5Over won
- France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5Over won
- France vs. Iraq: Iraq 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- France vs. Iraq: Iraq 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- France vs. Iraq: Iraq 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5Under won
- France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5Under won
- France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5Under won
- France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5Over won
- France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5Over won
- France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5Over won
- France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5Under won
- France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5Under won
- France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5Under won
- France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5Under won
- France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5Under won
- France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: France (-1.5)France won
- Spread: France (-2.5)France won
- Spread: France (-3.5)Iraq won
- Spread: France (-4.5)Iraq won
- Spread: France (-5.5)Iraq won
- Spread: Iraq (-1.5)France won
- Spread: Iraq (-2.5)France won
- Spread: Iraq (-4.5)France won
- Spread: Iraq (-5.5)France won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.