TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$767,617
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$222,747

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $767,617 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c32,943$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.526291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c20,000$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1171051.9%2 W · 103 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c19,718$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.43460%0 W · 46 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8b5…b789backed Yes1c14,939$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.825817.2%10 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+77%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b6b…3e7abacked Yes0c12,738$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x456a…741bbacked Yes2c10,070$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf25…be9ebacked Yes2c9,031$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+64.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eaa…25bcbacked Yes0c8,835$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c7,824$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.175813.8%8 W · 50 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick3cpaid+63.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5bd6…da9bbacked Yes0c7,068$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3c2…ed34backed Yes0c7,068$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79eb…75bbbacked Yes0c7,068$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe199…a451backed Yes0c7,068$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b46…b499backed Yes0c7,068$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf850…2632backed Yes0c7,068$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc11…a36ebacked Yes0c7,068$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x851c…6ab4backed Yes0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c5,560$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.162560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe7e…c200backed Yes2c5,393$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.851216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-63.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8947…eaa0backed Yes0c5,301$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bfc…d119backed Yes0c5,301$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac74…5249backed Yes0c5,301$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b89…fcf4backed Yes0c5,301$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x348c…38d5backed Yes0c5,301$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a18…1ac7backed Yes0c5,301$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68fd…40e2backed Yes0c5,301$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbb7…0628backed Yes0c5,301$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51b7…6f01backed Yes0c5,301$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9deb…6fb2backed Yes0c5,301$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6096…3624backed Yes0c5,301$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd9f…997cbacked Yes0c5,301$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfb4…4214backed Yes0c5,301$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x209f…7646backed Yes0c5,301$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15e7…ccbebacked Yes0c5,301$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfafc…855dbacked Yes0c5,301$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab1c…e002backed Yes0c5,301$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73cb…bf80backed Yes0c5,301$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd849…aa0ebacked Yes0c5,301$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfea2…b797backed Yes2c4,578$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.691020%2 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-68.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6c8…2e53backed Yes1c4,010$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bb4…8465backed Yes1c4,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc0d…3d14backed Yes3c3,958$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103650%3 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+55.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f9c…8147backed Yes0c3,534$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x608c…eb68backed Yes0c3,534$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb192…fa58backed Yes0c3,534$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e5…1e2dbacked Yes0c3,534$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a48…37b3backed Yes0c3,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6647…53cebacked Yes1c3,434$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes0c3,421$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.424315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes1c3,419$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0330127.2%82 W · 219 L+1.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c6e…39f2backed Yes1c3,212$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes1c3,000$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.99329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-81.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes1c2,819$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.982110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c2,758$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.62821.2%1 W · 81 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e23…eed9backed Yes1c2,741$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb914…3713backed Yes1c2,303$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes1c2,161$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.61345.9%2 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xace0…05cebacked Yes1c2,118$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x973d…4e4ebacked Yes1c2,094$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9061…85a7backed Yes2c2,031$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes2c2,004$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.246716.4%11 W · 56 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-51.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fcb…d1fabacked Yes2c2,002$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf69a…1326backed Yes1c2,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes1c1,900$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.45221.2%11 W · 41 L+0.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-63.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4db…966ebacked Yes2c1,841$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked Yes1c1,750$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.294353.5%23 W · 20 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x125e…9440backed Yes1c1,721$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e03…eacdbacked Yes2c1,687$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x592a…59cbbacked Yes1c1,629$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b53…a7edbacked Yes2c1,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef61…5871backed Yes2c1,306$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a99…7937backed Yes1c1,231$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ecc…24c7backed Yes2c1,183$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.870%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6197…5857backed Yes1c1,127$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46d2…145dbacked Yes1c1,055$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-70.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c1,044$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1457426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6ed…53c3backed Yes2c1,035$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c87…c027backed Yes2c1,028$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.44812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-83.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec04…d41cbacked Yes2c1,015$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c27…f6f9backed Yes2c1,011$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick7cpaid+128.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x270a…7b78backed Yes1c1,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146428.1%18 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee6…b5bcbacked Yes2c973.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.61717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+261.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb882…e13ebacked Yes2c852.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-54.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x551d…f7debacked Yes2c785.53$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e1…a5c4backed Yes2c726.32$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19a1…d573backed Yes2c715.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60b5…2891backed Yes1c685.48$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x748c…551cbacked Yes2c625$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dd1…8b03backed Yes2c576.03$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf5d…113cbacked Yes2c534$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20b8…21a6backed Yes2c525$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes4c497.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.19695.8%4 W · 65 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-78.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c2…6de5backed Yes2c422.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+133.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.