AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d04d21b3132891ceec9aa6a92ed64f1e1f270eada5a8c3b0ad67422344fbae4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $767,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $222,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $767,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 32,943$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.52 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 20,000$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 19,718$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed Yes | 1c | 14,939$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.82 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6b…3e7abacked Yes | 0c | 12,738$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…741bbacked Yes | 2c | 10,070$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf25…be9ebacked Yes | 2c | 9,031$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaa…25bcbacked Yes | 0c | 8,835$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 7,824$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd6…da9bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,068$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c2…ed34backed Yes | 0c | 7,068$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79eb…75bbbacked Yes | 0c | 7,068$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe199…a451backed Yes | 0c | 7,068$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b46…b499backed Yes | 0c | 7,068$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf850…2632backed Yes | 0c | 7,068$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc11…a36ebacked Yes | 0c | 7,068$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x851c…6ab4backed Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 5,560$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7e…c200backed Yes | 2c | 5,393$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.85 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8947…eaa0backed Yes | 0c | 5,301$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…d119backed Yes | 0c | 5,301$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac74…5249backed Yes | 0c | 5,301$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…fcf4backed Yes | 0c | 5,301$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…38d5backed Yes | 0c | 5,301$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a18…1ac7backed Yes | 0c | 5,301$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68fd…40e2backed Yes | 0c | 5,301$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…0628backed Yes | 0c | 5,301$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…6f01backed Yes | 0c | 5,301$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…6fb2backed Yes | 0c | 5,301$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6096…3624backed Yes | 0c | 5,301$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9f…997cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,301$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb4…4214backed Yes | 0c | 5,301$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209f…7646backed Yes | 0c | 5,301$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e7…ccbebacked Yes | 0c | 5,301$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfafc…855dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,301$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab1c…e002backed Yes | 0c | 5,301$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73cb…bf80backed Yes | 0c | 5,301$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd849…aa0ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,301$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed Yes | 2c | 4,578$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c8…2e53backed Yes | 1c | 4,010$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8465backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…3d14backed Yes | 3c | 3,958$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…8147backed Yes | 0c | 3,534$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x608c…eb68backed Yes | 0c | 3,534$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb192…fa58backed Yes | 0c | 3,534$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…1e2dbacked Yes | 0c | 3,534$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a48…37b3backed Yes | 0c | 3,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6647…53cebacked Yes | 1c | 3,434$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 0c | 3,421$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 1c | 3,419$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…39f2backed Yes | 1c | 3,212$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 1c | 2,819$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,758$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e23…eed9backed Yes | 1c | 2,741$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb914…3713backed Yes | 1c | 2,303$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,161$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace0…05cebacked Yes | 1c | 2,118$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973d…4e4ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,094$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…85a7backed Yes | 2c | 2,031$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 2c | 2,004$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcb…d1fabacked Yes | 2c | 2,002$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf69a…1326backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,900$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4db…966ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,841$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x125e…9440backed Yes | 1c | 1,721$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e03…eacdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,687$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x592a…59cbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,629$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b53…a7edbacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…5871backed Yes | 2c | 1,306$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a99…7937backed Yes | 1c | 1,231$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ecc…24c7backed Yes | 2c | 1,183$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6197…5857backed Yes | 1c | 1,127$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…145dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,055$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,044$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ed…53c3backed Yes | 2c | 1,035$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c87…c027backed Yes | 2c | 1,028$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec04…d41cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,015$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c27…f6f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,011$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee6…b5bcbacked Yes | 2c | 973.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +261.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb882…e13ebacked Yes | 2c | 852.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551d…f7debacked Yes | 2c | 785.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e1…a5c4backed Yes | 2c | 726.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19a1…d573backed Yes | 2c | 715.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b5…2891backed Yes | 1c | 685.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x748c…551cbacked Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd1…8b03backed Yes | 2c | 576.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5d…113cbacked Yes | 2c | 534$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20b8…21a6backed Yes | 2c | 525$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 497.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c2…6de5backed Yes | 2c | 422.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on April 30?Yes won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.