TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will a dozen eggs be below $4.50 in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$187,224
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$196,260

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $187,224 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcce2…d58bbacked No23c53,683$12,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,288.412040%8 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x69d2…924abacked Yes62c30,109$18,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,667.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca29…5986backed No38c30,109$11,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,667.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed Yes77c26,202$20,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,181.78520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-73%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94b0…9d34backed Yes64c14,810$9,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,446.964037.5%15 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed Yes1c12,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick4cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe1d…c011backed Yes64c7,344$4,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,672.51520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-1.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes73c5,729$4,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,160.171822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1399…913ebacked Yes80c4,911$3,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,928.710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac61…f5f7backed No35c3,245$1,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,117.16333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe58…ee71backed Yes78c3,211$2,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,502.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb171…b363backed Yes77c2,670$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,050333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes76c2,630$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x057d…6eddbacked No19c2,022$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,633.35450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+91.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2042…6694backed Yes78c1,726$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,340.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No35c1,660$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,078.811435.7%5 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick20cpaid+182.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f65…e944backed Yes75c1,330$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No33c1,200$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.93862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick38cpaid+41.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84ff…9f4abacked Yes74c1,106$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.3230%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes77c1,000$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No36c865.26$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.459144%40 W · 51 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x768b…5403backed Yes79c690$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked No26c626.92$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.921323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick12cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed No29c605.12$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.582532%8 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0dc…247dbacked No21c590$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4594…2af1backed Yes65c570$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71fc…f570backed No35c570$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d0e…49e3backed Yes79c531.43$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.78475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+78.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes75c529.89$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.536532.3%21 W · 44 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No42c523.65$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.3520242.1%85 W · 117 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe10…95cbbacked No23c499.98$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed No35c497.51$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick20cpaid+179.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x15f6…e98fbacked No21c475$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f5e…3ce7backed Yes67c462$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+138.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes80c460$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.69728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41ff…ec85backed No21c400$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa834…71aebacked Yes77c389.61$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed No16c303.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.41735.3%6 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick23cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0223…34d1backed Yes72c280.56$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x063a…27b9backed No32c249.98$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.98425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid-21.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbd6…48c1backed Yes79c245$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x177a…c284backed Yes66c237.47$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.661127.3%3 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7885…eeaebacked Yes75c221.11$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.6230%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e0c…25dfbacked No30c217.5$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+235.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd661…74fdbacked Yes80c200$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed No27c200$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.56235.5%22 W · 40 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99ec…f99ebacked Yes60c166.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-55.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bdc…d95ebacked Yes77c166$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.98333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+177.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b24…01abbacked Yes75c162.06$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1211540%6 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-41.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb0…a6c3backed Yes63c158.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes47c158.19$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.85714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-48.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f67…55bfbacked Yes80c150$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x712c…de39backed Yes44c140.91$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-69.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7377…6414backed No45c139.31$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+124.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No44c135.31$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.24854.2%26 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x822e…5febbacked Yes80c125$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes80c125$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes80c123.68$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.781030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9fa…0371backed Yes65c115$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+163.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes40c108$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb277…d809backed No25c107.62$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.721233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x833c…0c6fbacked Yes75c107$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+233.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No65c105.37$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.884751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7ea…79d8backed Yes75c105.26$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+233.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No30c101.14$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.7315148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f72…9a74backed Yes80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick79cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb167…f6e8backed No21c100$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.51030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352540%10 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-28.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdaba…5c9ebacked Yes65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes40c99.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402119%4 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-50.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97df…3088backed Yes69c96.71$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.392733.3%9 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e82…d977backed No58c96.55$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No21c87.34$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.161855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dee…f4e6backed No34c86.94$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.441861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+0.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf385…4864backed No35c82$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.711060%6 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked No28c82$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.972152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b6e…7b8bbacked Yes77c81$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.37333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid+103.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No28c80.29$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.817528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe424…0d1abacked Yes63c79.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8264…845abacked Yes66c75.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaba5…a69ebacked Yes54c74.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97f3…c807backed Yes43c69.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+90.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4659…1df8backed Yes77c65.35$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab0e…69f5backed Yes79c65$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa33b…3f53backed Yes76c61.11$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c4…4c8bbacked Yes78c60$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28d0…f0b2backed No38c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9033…4970backed Yes77c58.44$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes74c54.05$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5da5…79eebacked Yes39c53$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a49…7447backed Yes74c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+45%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a1c…76e9backed No36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb54c…61b0backed Yes80c50$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked Yes77c50$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No30c43.7$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.424240.5%17 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No26c43.11$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.94744.7%21 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb882…e13ebacked No35c42.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffde…219dbacked No37c40.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.542100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+131.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.252642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x170d…c42cbacked Yes79c39$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.