Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.50-4.75 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x238b7e71d49b3d337428480e53db2eca380e1213e6010e9f98fc7e8123f7213a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff51…ced1backed No | 63c | 32,717$20,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,611.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6a…e784backed Yes | 37c | 32,717$12,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,611.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 27c | 4,300$1,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,139.09 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…c011backed No | 71c | 3,324$2,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,370.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,752$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,482.68 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 25c | 1,694$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.51 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 70c | 1,200$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.47 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce2a…832fbacked Yes | 13c | 635$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +217%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4faebacked Yes | 18c | 568.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +240.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce2…d58bbacked Yes | 16c | 495.73$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.2 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 16c | 460$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.61 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 17c | 400$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5e…3ce7backed Yes | 21c | 400$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8e…7f09backed Yes | 13c | 345$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc50…b0b1backed Yes | 14c | 345$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…6221backed Yes | 20c | 300$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.71 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 286.4$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.7 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 191.35$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.86 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdc…d95ebacked Yes | 12c | 166$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 69c | 163.86$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.85 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 160$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 23c | 157.48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.31 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Yes | 18c | 139$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 20cpaid | +179.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 17c | 133.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.59 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 16c | 123.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e82…d977backed No | 64c | 117.34$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fa…0371backed Yes | 19c | 115$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5326…f3efbacked Yes | 22c | 113.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…0c6fbacked Yes | 15c | 107$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ea…79d8backed Yes | 15c | 105.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 73c | 105$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 17c | 96.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.69 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 25c | 87.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.46 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…7b8bbacked Yes | 16c | 86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf1…80a7backed Yes | 30c | 65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 35c | 51.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…c284backed Yes | 25c | 45.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a dozen eggs be between $4.50-4.75 in May?this page
- Will a dozen eggs be above $6.00 in May?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be below $4.50 in May?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $4.75-5.00 in May?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $5.00-5.25 in May?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $5.25-5.50 in May?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $5.50-5.75 in May?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $5.75-6.00 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.