AI · resolved market
Will Gemini have the top AI model on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcebed92d00e70d9283100b73927b74ea46a4a0161959e104e80fb0acbec3876c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $397,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $406,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $397,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 379 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 77c | 23,841$18,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,466.37 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…f062backed No | 41c | 23,000$9,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,430 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaa…cdeebacked No | 1c | 19,660$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6f…6c21backed Yes | 59c | 16,000$9,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,560 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb5…96c3backed No | 21c | 10,925$2,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,266.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd7…cd86backed No | 22c | 8,500$1,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,904.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 8c | 7,508$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.17 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…cbddbacked Yes | 59c | 7,000$4,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,870 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked No | 6c | 6,930$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.63 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146b…2e37backed Yes | 64c | 6,829$4,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,454.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 2c | 6,417$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.9 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 13c | 6,108$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.19 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7472…4febbacked Yes | 60c | 5,211$3,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,060.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed No | 28c | 4,375$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.02 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked No | 35c | 3,883$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf89e…1783backed No | 4c | 3,553$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87bb…b69fbacked No | 16c | 3,508$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd77…84edbacked Yes | 56c | 3,469$1,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,515.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 43c | 3,444$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,474.2 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca62…fbfabacked Yes | 69c | 3,407$2,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 32c | 2,797$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.56 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed No | 47c | 2,708$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.95 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bf…62cbbacked No | 5c | 2,402$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…acfdbacked Yes | 78c | 2,290$1,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2042…6694backed Yes | 74c | 2,179$1,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed No | 5c | 2,047$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.36 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed No | 38c | 1,852$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 75c | 1,660$1,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…1a0dbacked Yes | 67c | 1,603$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3498…2de9backed No | 16c | 1,583$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0396…eb21backed Yes | 65c | 1,531$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…6901backed Yes | 77c | 1,475$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 68c | 1,382$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 18c | 1,380$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.62 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1f…6b72backed No | 6c | 1,337$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ea…8caabacked No | 12c | 1,289$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…ab70backed No | 1c | 1,175$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac82…0ac0backed No | 9c | 1,137$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f18cbacked No | 9c | 1,094$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c3…4a0cbacked Yes | 64c | 1,064$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 32c | 975.84$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.98 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…41a1backed Yes | 65c | 882.6$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3831…c9bfbacked Yes | 68c | 839.9$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b7…7843backed Yes | 67c | 813.87$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked No | 4c | 805.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbba4…f8c6backed No | 3c | 790$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -89%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 77c | 765$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.2 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…decdbacked No | 29c | 762.3$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 56c | 720.68$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.01 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba0…3d98backed Yes | 77c | 654.42$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4a…d0a4backed Yes | 76c | 651.12$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 49c | 648.26$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.3 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed No | 27c | 619.16$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.43 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e79…c9d4backed Yes | 76c | 587.64$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 22c | 586.59$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.26 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa822…64e6backed Yes | 60c | 580$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…dbbcbacked No | 10c | 565.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…f235backed No | 24c | 550$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 20c | 530.93$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.34 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked No | 4c | 524.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 78c | 522.13$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.86 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 24c | 511.64$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.79 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked Yes | 60c | 502.42$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…42debacked Yes | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 66c | 440$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.92 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7b…6785backed Yes | 77c | 438.8$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9187…cdb4backed No | 21c | 430.71$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1e…9824backed Yes | 71c | 422.44$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5936…764bbacked No | 31c | 419.72$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88f4…f92cbacked No | 50c | 402.9$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 56c | 402$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.88 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked No | 4c | 399.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed Yes | 48c | 370$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.4 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 25c | 367.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.37 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf1…d5ecbacked Yes | 64c | 361.59$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes | 71c | 361.54$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.85 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1601…2841backed Yes | 69c | 361.1$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0242…b4c2backed No | 4c | 350.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ac…a261backed No | 4c | 349.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 16c | 344.49$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a39…5077backed No | 52c | 341.85$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…ba10backed No | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 60c | 305.12$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…c3a3backed Yes | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042a…adabbacked Yes | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 62c | 300$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 68c | 299.99$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes | 57c | 287$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.89 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ef…2c77backed No | 15c | 271.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…aeddbacked Yes | 71c | 252.36$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.18 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 57c | 244.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 69c | 240.09$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.69 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…714dbacked Yes | 77c | 227.18$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8d…c69ebacked Yes | 57c | 221.15$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…c9cdbacked No | 39c | 218.62$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 31c | 216.87$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.62 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc726…c39abacked Yes | 72c | 210.51$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes | 65c | 210$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gemini have the top AI model on December 31?this page
- Will ChatGPT have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Claude have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will another model be the top AI model on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.