AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT have the top AI model on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf153eefd52dad93c1675f76c17b3c6b59e67cd5ae2a452a6b9a2d028f5833fc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $242,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $203,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $242,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 177 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 11c | 18,199$1,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,968.89 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Yes | 8c | 13,152$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.47 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…89f3backed Yes | 7c | 11,745$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed Yes | 24c | 10,635$2,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,578.07 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 32c | 7,670$2,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,467.23 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 7c | 6,016$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.39 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 23c | 5,255$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.65 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 30c | 4,638$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,381.31 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd77…84edbacked Yes | 35c | 4,609$1,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,631.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 27c | 4,233$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…42debacked No | 67c | 4,146$2,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 20c | 3,229$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.41 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 3,149$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.67 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 21c | 2,921$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.6 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d0…d03cbacked Yes | 22c | 2,846$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…c51cbacked Yes | 19c | 2,681$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25a9…f991backed Yes | 5c | 2,038$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 29c | 1,952$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 9c | 1,677$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.16 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked No | 66c | 1,671$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f4…f92cbacked Yes | 26c | 1,556$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa221…d7ebbacked Yes | 7c | 1,452$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7472…4febbacked Yes | 18c | 1,424$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.01 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…ca58backed Yes | 15c | 1,376$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e36…13b2backed Yes | 7c | 1,350$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed No | 65c | 1,215$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…1fedbacked Yes | 4c | 1,159$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7887…49fcbacked Yes | 32c | 1,105$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 29c | 1,094$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.68 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5246…32a6backed No | 68c | 1,060$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc15f…650abacked No | 68c | 1,040$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 1,006$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.07 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…b5bcbacked Yes | 13c | 999.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca62…fbfabacked No | 68c | 999.98$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe03d…189abacked No | 69c | 945.09$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.6 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccaa…9066backed No | 76c | 925$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad4…7eafbacked Yes | 5c | 847.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked Yes | 4c | 808.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba3…9592backed Yes | 24c | 786.77$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1f…6b72backed Yes | 8c | 780.63$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf0…f811backed Yes | 2c | 739.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…c9cdbacked Yes | 39c | 737.91$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 17c | 698.74$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.16 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 3c | 684.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 17c | 614.29$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.34 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…1a0dbacked Yes | 34c | 580$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…faf3backed No | 71c | 566.75$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0d…c7bebacked Yes | 27c | 565.83$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ca…9069backed Yes | 4c | 555.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x298f…85adbacked Yes | 13c | 544.88$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…decdbacked No | 61c | 511$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b0…c49ebacked Yes | 4c | 507.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…6bf8backed Yes | 4c | 507.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x950c…9dc2backed No | 74c | 471.9$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…2732backed Yes | 21c | 470.03$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…aeddbacked Yes | 31c | 463.52$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.73 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…9f56backed Yes | 4c | 452.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 13c | 449$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…6c3dbacked Yes | 9c | 427.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 25c | 421.25$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6834…2bd2backed No | 62c | 398.43$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 18c | 381.91$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7b…6785backed Yes | 36c | 371.15$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…6e0bbacked Yes | 23c | 349.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df4…02c9backed No | 78c | 344.92$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78a5…47ecbacked Yes | 4c | 338.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…adbebacked Yes | 30c | 335.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee5…9a51backed Yes | 16c | 333.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…2307backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed Yes | 12c | 332.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ee…115bbacked Yes | 15c | 331.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70d…cb59backed Yes | 16c | 331$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 4c | 325.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x269a…0837backed Yes | 31c | 324.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked No | 67c | 300.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.57 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5afc…ba0bbacked Yes | 14c | 300$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfd…184bbacked No | 75c | 261.84$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf321…a368backed Yes | 32c | 250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3831…c9bfbacked Yes | 55c | 247.39$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 11c | 240$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…8ce6backed Yes | 8c | 232.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b9…b4febacked No | 78c | 230$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad08…a238backed Yes | 14c | 220$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa54…f2aabacked Yes | 21c | 203.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 66c | 200$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.38 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf755…29edbacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d4…f9ecbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…3e04backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc726…c39abacked No | 72c | 194.08$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc6…6043backed Yes | 12c | 193.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d84…7cffbacked Yes | 13c | 189.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…4116backed Yes | 47c | 177.96$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 12c | 167$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…c301backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146b…2e37backed Yes | 26c | 149.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT have the top AI model on December 31?this page
- Will Claude have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Gemini have the top AI model on December 31?Yes won
- Will Grok have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will another model be the top AI model on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.