Weather · resolved market
2025 January hottest on record?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x850a209ec68ae2a04b97aed4c824b4492a4ef666b45234cd3082fb20eb32ba1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,493,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,476,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,493,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 512 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1eca…63a9backed No | 2c | 274,350$5,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,889.19 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed No | 4c | 267,876$9,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,698.32 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc060…8956backed No | 1c | 198,894$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8211…8db1backed No | 2c | 120,605$2,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,694.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 66c | 104,442$68,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,022.19 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2722…7e87backed No | 2c | 100,000$2,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,059 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d7…89a1backed No | 8c | 59,572$4,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,897.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f4…7968backed No | 1c | 59,571$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb256…6f9cbacked No | 1c | 55,973$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 1c | 49,046$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.31 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e5…ae53backed No | 1c | 47,984$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ef…db74backed No | 4c | 46,347$1,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,975.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed No | 15c | 39,695$5,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,788.57 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…c960backed No | 32c | 39,593$12,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,505.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c0…703fbacked No | 5c | 38,625$1,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,795 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 44c | 38,192$16,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,761.65 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed No | 9c | 34,379$3,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,176.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d08…113fbacked No | 3c | 32,000$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…649cbacked No | 3c | 30,997$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 3c | 29,908$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.76 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1327…9237backed No | 22c | 28,249$6,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,337.24 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 56c | 27,308$15,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,146.83 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked No | 33c | 26,798$8,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,866.46 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb14…6c7ebacked No | 3c | 24,067$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.03 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c4…43e8backed No | 1c | 22,563$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260f…7316backed No | 3c | 20,912$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…035abacked No | 1c | 20,577$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1be…bdbfbacked No | 7c | 19,894$1,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,407.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1416…c996backed No | 5c | 19,872$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.39 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26a7…9a0cbacked No | 1c | 19,020$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8b…c4afbacked No | 1c | 18,733$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…9a00backed No | 2c | 18,620$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6064…1af8backed Yes | 67c | 18,380$12,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,096.48 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf499…5543backed No | 4c | 18,304$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ba…dfbbbacked No | 60c | 17,700$10,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,560.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 28c | 16,977$4,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,777.14 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc654…f0debacked No | 2c | 15,248$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 1c | 15,099$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.79 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfd…cf1abacked No | 1c | 15,066$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a0…6feebacked No | 3c | 14,922$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 11c | 14,502$1,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,615.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…de1abacked No | 1c | 14,386$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…c355backed No | 4c | 14,102$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…dbc0backed No | 2c | 13,692$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed No | 31c | 13,673$4,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,253.32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x410b…7d05backed No | 3c | 13,413$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0674…f803backed No | 2c | 12,913$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd8…2dd9backed No | 2c | 12,500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b4…c8b0backed No | 1c | 12,315$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5890…1a49backed No | 5c | 12,231$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed Yes | 56c | 12,177$6,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,322.79 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77ec…8841backed No | 1c | 11,274$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffb…7679backed No | 1c | 10,398$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed No | 1c | 10,207$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…ce31backed No | 3c | 10,145$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked No | 28c | 10,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…266fbacked No | 1c | 10,000$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad86…cd10backed No | 2c | 9,385$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d20…75e0backed No | 2c | 9,199$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d3…92b7backed No | 2c | 9,074$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 22c | 8,847$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980.42 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb312…49b3backed No | 2c | 8,813$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…911fbacked No | 1c | 8,773$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd7…0643backed No | 9c | 8,526$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…83adbacked Yes | 62c | 8,514$5,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,247.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88cb…504fbacked No | 1c | 7,812$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d6…0489backed No | 10c | 7,807$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c9…22d8backed No | 5c | 7,662$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0571…fb66backed No | 6c | 7,472$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf1…5475backed No | 2c | 7,147$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc52…3962backed No | 1c | 7,000$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1839…e863backed No | 7c | 6,539$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3560…1b93backed No | 23c | 6,507$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,505.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed Yes | 56c | 6,506$3,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,843.3 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…06e0backed No | 33c | 6,470$2,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,121.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf1…e6b4backed No | 2c | 6,407$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb869…c4c6backed No | 2c | 6,344$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…bd36backed No | 30c | 6,230$1,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,853.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked No | 51c | 6,200$3,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,152.09 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 63c | 5,934$3,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,223.74 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14dd…13eebacked No | 2c | 5,918$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…403abacked No | 2c | 5,700$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8d…6318backed No | 3c | 5,681$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ce…db56backed No | 20c | 5,596$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed No | 43c | 5,568$2,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,378.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 2c | 5,546$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.34 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b0…b7bfbacked No | 2c | 5,294$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb80…5dbfbacked No | 9c | 5,124$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfc…93f7backed No | 26c | 5,039$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,306 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed Yes | 59c | 5,000$2,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d9…b086backed No | 2c | 4,952$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed No | 38c | 4,896$1,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,879.38 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 1c | 4,800$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 68c | 4,779$3,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,517.12 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed No | 27c | 4,675$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.24 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433b…58debacked No | 2c | 4,585$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.65 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked No | 45c | 4,500$2,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,045 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…c22dbacked No | 1c | 4,444$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…f348backed No | 2c | 4,297$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 46c | 4,196$1,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,273.33 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.