Ukraine · resolved market
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x422ca08d0b46118b477f19e06a432fc4e4ba50173c524fa8fee827bf321645d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91e8…f1abbacked No | 61c | 8,152$4,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,986 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf7…294abacked No | 60c | 5,177$3,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,083.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 39c | 3,929$1,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,386.68 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…45f0backed Yes | 49c | 3,600$1,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,842.53 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd600…b66ebacked Yes | 40c | 3,519$1,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,107.66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +229.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…008cbacked Yes | 41c | 3,128$1,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,850.73 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +4.1wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +489.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 51c | 3,107$1,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584.43 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d78…4cc1backed Yes | 40c | 2,690$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,613.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…f89cbacked No | 60c | 2,500$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 38c | 2,156$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,343.64 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 39c | 2,106$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280.17 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b05…6180backed No | 61c | 2,054$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 62c | 2,020$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.58 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…71dfbacked Yes | 39c | 1,588$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.86 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Yes | 61c | 1,485$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.03 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 40cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed Yes | 51c | 1,471$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 39c | 1,331$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.14 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 40c | 1,235$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +193%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 62c | 1,131$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6a…e86dbacked No | 22c | 1,102$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…218dbacked Yes | 43c | 1,095$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.37 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.41per pick | 21cpaid | +296.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1e…d371backed No | 59c | 1,082$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 60c | 1,058$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 30c | 954.59$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.55 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 41c | 884.63$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.47 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 43c | 813.78$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.78 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 62c | 800$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 49c | 796.2$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.06 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 40c | 754$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.3 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468d…bb98backed Yes | 76c | 706.98$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 73c | 694.4$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.47 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 55c | 669.53$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.4 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7be…539fbacked No | 39c | 665.71$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 54c | 648.3$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.08 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…bbe4backed No | 61c | 630$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.7 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 40c | 629.9$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.45 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 45c | 618$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.72 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 50c | 601.77$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 40c | 600$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358 | 58 | 20.7%12 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 37c | 533$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.16 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +5.9wins | +0.22per pick | 19cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 42c | 517.63$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.6 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…4726backed Yes | 38c | 506.1$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0899…2f0fbacked Yes | 40c | 500.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +764.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked No | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ad…dae2backed No | 30c | 456.36$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…dd93backed Yes | 44c | 449.45$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12e7…11b4backed Yes | 38c | 423$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 34cpaid | +253.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed No | 58c | 420$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.89 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 39c | 400$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f02…0b2ebacked No | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…2ceebacked Yes | 43c | 399.96$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +138.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 41c | 380.49$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 44c | 357.14$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.14 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x834b…089abacked No | 60c | 334.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +400%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…cb5ebacked No | 39c | 332.84$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.57 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 61c | 324.39$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 42c | 316.67$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.67 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x069f…b749backed No | 58c | 312.57$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.12 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 7c | 300.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed No | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked No | 22c | 299.53$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes | 69c | 289$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 58c | 285.52$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.6 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 21c | 254.86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…4403backed Yes | 43c | 248.12$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76fb…c306backed No | 53c | 242$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.08 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb621…8dcdbacked No | 45c | 240$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6594…9a61backed Yes | 38c | 239.39$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…08ffbacked Yes | 45c | 239.21$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.21 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 231.9$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.46 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 63c | 226.17$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.68 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 40c | 222.9$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.43 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e93…cacdbacked Yes | 45c | 220$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cff…1c37backed No | 59c | 213.75$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…3ca3backed Yes | 63c | 203.04$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.75 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.78 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7593…e677backed No | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.92 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 24cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb15…df4cbacked No | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb34a…6e39backed Yes | 38c | 199.98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa39c…08bcbacked Yes | 41c | 193.59$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0359…a079backed No | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3512…c2babacked No | 55c | 181.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…9ed6backed No | 46c | 178.76$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.65 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x720b…37f6backed Yes | 45c | 175.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d9…fd2fbacked Yes | 41c | 174.51$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 7c | 167.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4e…9e0bbacked No | 55c | 166.75$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 15c | 165.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 41c | 163.75$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.61 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4153…c423backed No | 62c | 159.65$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes | 41c | 158.97$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.41 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +178.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3828…8f92backed No | 59c | 152.54$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2384…3e0bbacked No | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf041…9b4bbacked No | 58c | 150$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9d…24b3backed No | 63c | 145.79$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.18 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.