Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f33f46fa571836f090ef8f3e62caee237f8f73c36a711e757a6f71bf8ef9c6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $486,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $471,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $486,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 501 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfe2…8c49backed No | 71c | 21,042$14,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,199.87 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 62c | 16,485$10,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,193.23 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…3f04backed Yes | 29c | 15,703$4,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,516.85 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes | 52c | 14,636$7,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,646.15 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 39c | 11,430$4,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,955.25 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 58c | 9,552$5,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,528.35 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 49c | 9,484$4,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,610.02 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 26c | 9,054$2,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,372.14 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…5e92backed Yes | 66c | 8,984$5,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,929.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 39c | 7,515$2,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,908.65 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 11c | 7,274$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.11 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked Yes | 64c | 7,050$4,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,518.06 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 30c | 6,769$2,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,763.65 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…2343backed No | 35c | 6,501$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,251.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 37c | 6,278$2,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,301.78 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 39c | 6,220$2,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,430.91 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed Yes | 25c | 5,939$1,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,488.33 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4422…96f4backed No | 46c | 5,626$2,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,038.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed Yes | 20c | 5,600$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +29%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 44c | 5,468$2,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,381.45 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed Yes | 16c | 5,440$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.42 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 34c | 5,234$1,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,779.23 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b78…e410backed No | 59c | 5,116$2,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,121.78 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 67c | 5,016$3,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,364.46 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7590…d6e0backed No | 68c | 4,832$3,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,525.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed No | 28c | 4,309$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,084.97 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 17c | 4,296$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.98 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf59d…bb41backed No | 42c | 3,874$1,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,237.22 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed14…bebcbacked No | 43c | 3,823$1,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,164.54 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…7567backed No | 72c | 3,751$2,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.86 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +59%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5604…f26bbacked No | 62c | 3,237$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…9b80backed No | 32c | 3,096$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,095.52 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 44c | 3,076$1,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,708.19 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…55dfbacked No | 44c | 2,896$1,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,623.49 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…be54backed Yes | 48c | 2,810$1,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,358.68 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 2,763$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.63 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…d601backed No | 44c | 2,726$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c9…586abacked No | 34c | 2,651$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750.68 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…93b6backed No | 68c | 2,650$1,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 48c | 2,543$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.5 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 48c | 2,338$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.24 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 45c | 2,338$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.4 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 34c | 2,306$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,516.15 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…9e58backed No | 44c | 2,273$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.14 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5d…4a43backed No | 69c | 2,174$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 53c | 2,120$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.4 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 42c | 2,100$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 38c | 2,081$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.09 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed Yes | 5c | 2,053$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.11 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6561…c074backed Yes | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…b193backed No | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3034…dd88backed No | 58c | 1,987$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.53 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbda…47d2backed Yes | 8c | 1,984$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc984…37cabacked No | 36c | 1,902$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.86 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…4047backed No | 48c | 1,886$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d3…52b9backed No | 37c | 1,867$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,837$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.86 | 87 | 11.5%10 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 3c | 1,782$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d2…9f8fbacked No | 33c | 1,769$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2063backed No | 56c | 1,656$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.78 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 34cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x756a…95e5backed No | 50c | 1,633$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…9589backed Yes | 58c | 1,625$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…3d8cbacked No | 33c | 1,577$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.72 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 1,489$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.93 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4341…b193backed No | 69c | 1,444$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…3961backed No | 38c | 1,434$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.21 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…d87cbacked No | 37c | 1,421$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.39 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…e366backed No | 64c | 1,404$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.93 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9290…3452backed No | 40c | 1,367$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.87 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +35%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d87…4f67backed No | 57c | 1,344$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…a20fbacked Yes | 72c | 1,281$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…c279backed Yes | 73c | 1,266$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.35 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…575fbacked Yes | 42c | 1,203$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…81dabacked Yes | 8c | 1,171$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.52 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…3fa6backed No | 44c | 1,143$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb0…aa75backed No | 45c | 1,120$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.07 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 60c | 1,103$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.72 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 32c | 1,100$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 62c | 1,100$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.41 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e90…4d95backed Yes | 63c | 1,091$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.43 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…c27ebacked No | 64c | 1,036$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.29 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62b…28b4backed Yes | 4c | 1,015$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf989…47ccbacked No | 50c | 1,002$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.37 | 32 | 84.4%27 W · 5 L | +9.1wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.08 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e23…8579backed No | 48c | 1,000$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.3 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabf0…da21backed Yes | 58c | 999.99$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 56c | 999.98$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.99 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 23c | 985.02$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.98 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 953.21$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.91 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4271…da24backed No | 67c | 941.67$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.67 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15cd…0888backed No | 67c | 936.96$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c1…675ebacked No | 64c | 925.14$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.19 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Yes | 63c | 899.97$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…1893backed Yes | 27c | 889.85$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.48 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…cb34backed Yes | 24c | 840.35$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.9 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 46c | 830.33$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.03 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 58c | 829.33$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.26 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed Yes | 49c | 826.86$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.5 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…b399backed Yes | 56c | 819.99$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.67 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 57c | 788.82$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.85 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?this page
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.