Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19848149723bbd00545b98f45aa239864d8afd2194fec522af4dd2cb222f9766
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $701,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $601,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $701,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 274 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 18c | 97,852$17,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,783.58 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 17c | 41,208$6,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,878.92 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 9c | 32,648$2,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,945.5 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 62c | 26,004$16,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,763.89 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 24,898$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.57 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 38c | 19,924$7,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,654.35 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked No | 76c | 15,047$11,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,632.25 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 58c | 14,648$8,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,159.96 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7540…0d08backed Yes | 38c | 13,345$5,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,027.85 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 12c | 12,711$1,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,577.48 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07d…3481backed Yes | 51c | 11,728$6,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,022.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 1c | 11,721$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.08 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 66c | 11,031$7,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,732.07 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe965…6559backed Yes | 49c | 10,295$5,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,074.25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed No | 70c | 10,111$7,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,073.31 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked Yes | 49c | 9,010$4,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,370.28 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 20c | 8,943$1,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,776.55 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 72c | 8,403$6,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,347.6 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 65c | 8,074$5,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,791.58 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…5ee2backed Yes | 11c | 7,535$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.85 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf289…2415backed Yes | 34c | 7,469$2,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,507.13 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 61c | 6,436$3,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,494.1 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked No | 62c | 6,000$3,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0620…8c8dbacked Yes | 3c | 5,803$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b21…deb6backed No | 78c | 5,317$4,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,195.62 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2731…2928backed Yes | 32c | 5,073$1,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,611.66 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 30c | 4,782$1,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,432.09 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 18c | 4,597$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.21 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 49c | 4,565$2,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,258.71 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdb…6919backed Yes | 40c | 4,443$1,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,777.19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb835…df41backed Yes | 2c | 4,324$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a4…7069backed Yes | 37c | 4,096$1,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,535.72 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,005$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 3,967$3,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.14 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 52c | 3,791$1,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,828.74 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 8c | 3,689$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.65 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…4050backed Yes | 36c | 3,388$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221.08 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…287cbacked Yes | 61c | 3,269$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2da1…97d1backed Yes | 2c | 3,202$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f9…4794backed Yes | 14c | 3,178$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.27 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3667…a875backed Yes | 4c | 3,077$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 50c | 3,073$1,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,548.58 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a4…9ba4backed Yes | 58c | 2,957$1,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,724.82 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cc…9211backed No | 74c | 2,824$2,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.81 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked Yes | 35c | 2,775$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.56 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 45c | 2,526$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,389.51 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed No | 73c | 2,500$1,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.01 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +45%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 35c | 2,413$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.29 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…c600backed Yes | 52c | 2,385$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.04 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…72ebbacked Yes | 31c | 2,321$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.59 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,268$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 64c | 2,247$1,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.29 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 11c | 2,200$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5922…3388backed Yes | 9c | 2,112$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.08 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…9b80backed No | 58c | 2,070$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.39 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 67c | 2,000$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.55 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed No | 78c | 2,000$1,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.5 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 51c | 2,000$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.5 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Yes | 53c | 1,972$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 43c | 1,960$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.99 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe81d…16bfbacked No | 49c | 1,917$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x531c…d8a7backed Yes | 1c | 1,760$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,677$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.22 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0afc…e1e4backed No | 62c | 1,500$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 15c | 1,495$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.87 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed No | 61c | 1,473$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.29 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…d936backed Yes | 25c | 1,445$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 58c | 1,371$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.48 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 38c | 1,364$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.49 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22e2…42d6backed Yes | 2c | 1,351$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,349$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.28 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c8…ce48backed No | 76c | 1,315$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 63c | 1,287$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.44 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 2c | 1,266$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x741d…e35cbacked No | 79c | 1,266$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.59 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…e446backed No | 72c | 1,265$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.1 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 67c | 1,265$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.96 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +79%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 23c | 1,233$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.8 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ba…1785backed Yes | 3c | 1,223$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked No | 58c | 1,217$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.73 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf989…47ccbacked No | 50c | 1,208$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.95 | 32 | 84.4%27 W · 5 L | +9.1wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…7d27backed Yes | 60c | 1,176$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9708…e1a0backed Yes | 53c | 1,144$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,106$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.08 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Yes | 13c | 1,100$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…08ffbacked Yes | 19c | 1,083$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.9 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 22c | 1,066$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.44 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 2c | 1,066$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…3fd9backed Yes | 40c | 1,002$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes | 40c | 1,001$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.51 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 70c | 1,000$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.9 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 35c | 1,000$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f36…d355backed No | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 26cpaid | +163.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 51c | 999.97$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.99 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…5eedbacked Yes | 3c | 979.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 55c | 972.15$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.41 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 11c | 945.49$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.16 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c09…dbfabacked Yes | 39c | 900$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -71%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.