Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa65fe234ac3808801290874c631e55bcfee30e437c78239808729a89d9f2de22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $496,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $475,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $496,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 499 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 11c | 30,716$3,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,466.57 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe700…7005backed Yes | 19c | 20,782$3,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,881.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +248.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed Yes | 27c | 16,964$4,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,636.93 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes | 26c | 12,500$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,299.99 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 13c | 12,281$1,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,605.16 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 34c | 11,334$3,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,831.44 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 23c | 11,164$2,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,528.17 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked Yes | 34c | 8,600$2,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,952.1 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 34c | 7,710$2,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,651.58 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes | 13c | 7,588$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…ffd4backed No | 66c | 7,580$5,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,577.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x305c…1d82backed Yes | 8c | 7,014$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.06 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…79ecbacked No | 65c | 6,961$4,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,429.25 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde93…5ff7backed No | 79c | 6,905$5,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,417.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 71cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 67c | 6,742$4,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,253.89 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5493…58b9backed No | 68c | 6,000$4,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,918 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…d601backed No | 71c | 5,272$3,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,517.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed No | 67c | 5,129$3,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,709.34 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 30c | 5,097$1,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,518.69 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed Yes | 9c | 5,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +29%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 28c | 4,980$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.65 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed No | 59c | 4,715$2,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950.74 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 4,167$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 53 | 5.7%3 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 4,033$3,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.73 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 25c | 3,835$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.74 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c9…586abacked No | 71c | 3,794$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.63 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 3,699$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.36 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…ea35backed Yes | 8c | 3,656$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked Yes | 30c | 3,617$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.86 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5a…747abacked Yes | 15c | 3,597$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.8 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf989…47ccbacked No | 63c | 3,184$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.12 | 32 | 84.4%27 W · 5 L | +9.1wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 22c | 3,011$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.03 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 66c | 3,000$1,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.06 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5878…1e2dbacked Yes | 11c | 2,942$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7590…d6e0backed No | 69c | 2,914$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,897$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 14c | 2,879$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.65 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 26c | 2,860$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.02 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 27c | 2,853$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.67 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…9b80backed No | 71c | 2,801$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.11 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf167…19a1backed No | 75c | 2,657$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 66c | 2,605$1,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.73 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…e48fbacked No | 77c | 2,600$2,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c1…675ebacked No | 66c | 2,575$1,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.02 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…c279backed Yes | 40c | 2,404$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.03 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…8ea4backed Yes | 13c | 2,285$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…472abacked No | 65c | 2,222$1,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +55%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 67c | 2,100$1,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.99 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 8c | 2,023$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.42 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 10c | 1,966$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.24 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df1…2da7backed Yes | 24c | 1,827$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ca…3501backed No | 65c | 1,740$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 1,707$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.35 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…c5fabacked No | 68c | 1,691$1,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8966…5d80backed Yes | 38c | 1,673$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.56 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…37d6backed No | 65c | 1,646$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.58 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +248.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed No | 62c | 1,621$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.24 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…fe67backed No | 66c | 1,597$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 9c | 1,593$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.86 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed No | 69c | 1,500$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…4050backed Yes | 34c | 1,462$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.57 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9126…6508backed No | 62c | 1,441$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5d…4a43backed No | 70c | 1,421$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0454…65d9backed No | 69c | 1,381$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…886ebacked No | 56c | 1,347$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.81 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 2c | 1,331$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 10c | 1,294$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.13 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa02a…86c6backed Yes | 22c | 1,284$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90fb…237ebacked No | 75c | 1,270$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +194%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…8d47backed Yes | 9c | 1,258$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.02 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6da1…8250backed Yes | 40c | 1,238$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…ea77backed No | 68c | 1,200$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.07 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 8c | 1,200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.94 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed No | 77c | 1,170$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.28 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…6df6backed Yes | 40c | 1,132$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768b…de48backed No | 80c | 1,128$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.25 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306c…3dbabacked Yes | 39c | 1,116$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.24 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 1,111$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.43 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb4…330dbacked No | 75c | 1,100$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x935a…6235backed Yes | 33c | 1,084$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.4 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34b6…c5c5backed Yes | 20c | 1,053$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79a6…bf57backed Yes | 47c | 1,051$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 10c | 1,049$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.87 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…c3cfbacked No | 67c | 1,017$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.46 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ad…4b7abacked No | 78c | 1,010$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -14%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4634…8001backed No | 75c | 1,008$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +290.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b4…6fabbacked Yes | 35c | 1,004$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…8d55backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.72 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0991…e29abacked Yes | 20c | 987.91$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.79 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 18c | 951.44$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.23 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…55dfbacked No | 77c | 900.69$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.18 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…5d62backed Yes | 38c | 892.11$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.43 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d46…84a5backed Yes | 8c | 865.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 5c | 865.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 54c | 853.99$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.41 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 23c | 833.47$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.33 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4634…9579backed No | 75c | 803.93$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9f…0fc9backed No | 60c | 800$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.05 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 38cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51b5…9975backed No | 65c | 799.53$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.91 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…8ab1backed No | 64c | 782.48$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.