Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc13c31b0e5d48e978cc5c66318659ecab10e9882543e87a5f4eea5a5f889bdc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5666…c630backed Yes | 14c | 5,541$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.04 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +29%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15af…9e32backed Yes | 16c | 5,450$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 13c | 2,600$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…446dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,540$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.61 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7727…15a4backed Yes | 5c | 2,266$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,970$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.47 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7776…1e8cbacked Yes | 22c | 1,574$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.91 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,373$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 77c | 1,055$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.01 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,017$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +202%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 7c | 972.91$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.09 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xedc1…0a06backed Yes | 15c | 913.98$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3032…99e7backed No | 76c | 870.83$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 12c | 794.18$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.75 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…3f04backed Yes | 20c | 779.15$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.16 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 15c | 739.76$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 26c | 723.29$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.8 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 29c | 626.19$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.07 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…886ebacked No | 73c | 540.99$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.07 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked No | 78c | 519.99$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed No | 77c | 516.36$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.49 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 67c | 443$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.63 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 11c | 430$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…b7e3backed No | 79c | 388.31$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.36 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…c464backed No | 79c | 379.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…0fbbbacked Yes | 14c | 376.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 6c | 366.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes | 14c | 351.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +178.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd739…25b1backed Yes | 13c | 350.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c13…6feebacked Yes | 7c | 339.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…cb34backed Yes | 14c | 318$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…aa15backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34d…b5c3backed Yes | 5c | 283.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 5c | 246.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 76c | 237.65$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes | 21c | 236.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 78c | 227.27$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 20c | 226.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…29ebbacked Yes | 14c | 208.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…27a3backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +236.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…8d47backed Yes | 22c | 190$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…3961backed No | 59c | 174.65$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.03 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x302a…bd1bbacked Yes | 10c | 166.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 7c | 154.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 8c | 151.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…0609backed Yes | 18c | 150.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b3…c439backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e97…ee92backed Yes | 27c | 148.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2801…ebdcbacked Yes | 22c | 138.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0167…e439backed No | 73c | 136.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86c4…7904backed Yes | 19c | 130.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x890c…27febacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 20c | 115$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…b479backed No | 76c | 113.87$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcab5…4bddbacked Yes | 20c | 105$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…d6dbbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…9501backed Yes | 18c | 82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…1443backed Yes | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 77.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 21c | 77.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 19c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…0734backed Yes | 18c | 74.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2468…3280backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes | 21c | 74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x039c…6c3fbacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 26c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked No | 78c | 57.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 70c | 54.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe754…cb3cbacked Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…3e7dbacked Yes | 30c | 49.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…83fcbacked Yes | 46c | 40.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 75c | 39.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07f…faadbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…3f15backed No | 79c | 21.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…3eb1backed No | 76c | 20.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dbf…3faebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x703d…80f6backed No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.9wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x58fc…24fdbacked No | 77c | 18.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 68c | 14.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…b754backed No | 80c | 13.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.78 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.