TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7398…29eb

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
87
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: MLB, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category MLB at 54 out of 100; worst NHL at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT3056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City Royalsbacked Philadelphia Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Redsbacked St. Louis Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+96.2%+$57.64
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)backed Boston Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.72
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankeesbacked Tampa Bay Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$36.91
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$67
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$67
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angelsbacked Los Angeles Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$17.24
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlinsbacked Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$18.86
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationalsbacked New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$22.17
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angelsbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+203%+$38.58
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockiesbacked Texas Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$17.04
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$19.22
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twinsbacked Houston Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Marinersbacked Seattle Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$20.45
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlinsbacked Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$27.5
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlinsbacked Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$33.83
San Francisco Giants vs. Athleticsbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$30.56
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockiesbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$22.63
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$33.83
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockiesbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT1752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group Bbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5)backed PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group Abacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$13.61
Games Total: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+158.5%+$31.7
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+114.5%+$27.49
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$33.14
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffsbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$31.22
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stagebacked Gentle Mates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group Bbacked Astralis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group Bbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$11.37
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5)backed FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group Abacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group Abacked FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$17.24
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group Bbacked Astralis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$19.38
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Passion UA (+1.5)backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$16.25
All 17 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-39.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
NHL — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)backed Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.75
Canadiens vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Golden Knights vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)backed Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
World Championships: USA vs. Germanybacked Germany · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
World Championships: Hungary vs. Great Britainbacked Hungary · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$28.38
Canadiens vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
World Championships: Finland vs. USAbacked USA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Sabres vs. Canadiensbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$39.1
Ducks vs. Golden Knightsbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Sabres vs. Canadiensbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$33
All 11 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hamburg European Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alex de Minaurbacked Alex de Minaur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+62.5%+$15.63
Hamburg European Open: Ugo Humbert vs Karen Khachanovbacked Ugo Humbert · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$12.79
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed Kiwoom DRX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
All 2 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will BK Hacken win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
IF Brommapojkarna vs. GAIS: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 2 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+133.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Acesbacked Indiana Fever · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+133.2%+$19.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: T1 vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacific Qualifier Stage 2backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.