TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
AFC Bournemouthof Manchester City FC, AFC Bournemouth
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$129,660
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$142,705

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,660 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed AFC Bournemouth73c21,832$16,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,791.086,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Manchester City FC37c19,001$7,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,015.0931947.6%152 W · 167 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Manchester City FC12c9,104$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.2860%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked AFC Bournemouth65c8,893$5,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,114.12,55847.7%1,221 W · 1,337 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed AFC Bournemouth64c8,599$5,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,070.8610765.4%70 W · 37 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed AFC Bournemouth66c6,464$4,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,220.0340655.2%224 W · 182 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Manchester City FC34c6,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,039.9213348.9%65 W · 68 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a93…c3eabacked Manchester City FC37c5,616$2,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,077.913132.3%10 W · 21 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf778…2f09backed Manchester City FC36c5,500$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,979.692722.2%6 W · 21 L-3.7wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-49%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Manchester City FC34c5,111$1,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,728.5891435.3%323 W · 591 L-15.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed AFC Bournemouth69c4,478$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,378.3219652%102 W · 94 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc181…6e97backed AFC Bournemouth64c4,277$2,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,539.561145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b78…473dbacked Manchester City FC36c3,639$1,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,311.467162%44 W · 27 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+20.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Manchester City FC34c3,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.9840953.3%218 W · 191 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed AFC Bournemouth63c2,601$1,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949.8559847.7%285 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40d0…4415backed AFC Bournemouth63c2,368$1,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$876.159254.3%50 W · 42 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Manchester City FC35c2,218$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.3213353.4%71 W · 62 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf442…911fbacked Manchester City FC37c2,108$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Manchester City FC36c2,098$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.7922049.1%108 W · 112 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Manchester City FC16c1,905$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.4772442.7%309 W · 415 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked AFC Bournemouth64c1,875$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6755954.2%32 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed AFC Bournemouth63c1,840$1,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.87361.6%45 W · 28 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked AFC Bournemouth63c1,655$1,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.360445.4%274 W · 330 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed AFC Bournemouth64c1,634$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.8456051.4%288 W · 272 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1851…7016backed AFC Bournemouth65c1,538$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed AFC Bournemouth73c1,431$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.5814463.2%91 W · 53 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0844…f46abacked Manchester City FC34c1,254$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.36955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked AFC Bournemouth64c1,143$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.1641850.7%212 W · 206 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Manchester City FC36c1,134$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.213148.4%15 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x304f…af95backed Manchester City FC35c834.37$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.03757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Manchester City FC21c782.43$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.7559332.9%195 W · 398 L-30.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-31.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed AFC Bournemouth64c779.19$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.516758.2%39 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb881…20a1backed AFC Bournemouth66c757.58$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.586547.7%31 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked Manchester City FC35c714.29$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503154.8%17 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Manchester City FC12c700$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8413921.6%30 W · 109 L-0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Manchester City FC28c688.7$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.8610234.3%35 W · 67 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Manchester City FC36c633.37$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.0719239.1%75 W · 117 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbffb…a60ebacked AFC Bournemouth63c600$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2223452.9%18 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Manchester City FC34c589$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.2627752.3%145 W · 132 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed Manchester City FC35c500$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17519235.9%69 W · 123 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99d7…6435backed Manchester City FC10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504938.8%19 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed Manchester City FC35c499.98$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.9913844.9%62 W · 76 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf18c…0350backed Manchester City FC36c483.33$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1743735.1%13 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf009…43d0backed Manchester City FC27c444.44$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202955.2%16 W · 13 L+4.0wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+34%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Manchester City FC21c420.7$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.684,76841.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Manchester City FC36c416.67$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504822.9%11 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid+5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23f9…3c2dbacked Manchester City FC37c410$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.75238.5%20 W · 32 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb885…e677backed Manchester City FC37c362.91$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-52%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc365…03b4backed Manchester City FC37c324.32$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed AFC Bournemouth63c319.44$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.1918238.5%70 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed AFC Bournemouth63c317.46$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.463240.6%13 W · 19 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf5b…5d3abacked AFC Bournemouth66c303.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.032281.8%18 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.15per pick67cpaid+25.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcfe4…4841backed AFC Bournemouth64c299.99$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+45.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked AFC Bournemouth69c291.65$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.6512652.4%66 W · 60 L+10.3wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+11.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed AFC Bournemouth66c281.06$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.93948.7%19 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick54cpaid+4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27b0…2758backed Manchester City FC23c277.27$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed AFC Bournemouth69c275.68$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.8674644.8%334 W · 412 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa272…797abacked Manchester City FC37c263.14$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa774…005fbacked AFC Bournemouth64c250$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905366%35 W · 18 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed AFC Bournemouth64c246.48$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.7311437.7%43 W · 71 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9f5…0688backed Manchester City FC34c238$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.925642.9%24 W · 32 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a61…bbb2backed Manchester City FC37c216.22$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-49%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed AFC Bournemouth64c214.52$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.0922146.2%102 W · 119 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Manchester City FC16c213.17$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.971,93842.5%823 W · 1,115 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e83…a620backed Manchester City FC36c202.78$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731020%2 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-40.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe060…fda8backed AFC Bournemouth66c200.76$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.268155.6%45 W · 36 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96a3…d944backed Manchester City FC33c200.16$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.051729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ea1…c38ebacked AFC Bournemouth66c200$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-36%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd38…99d4backed AFC Bournemouth65c200$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704151.2%21 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x36b4…d723backed Manchester City FC36c200$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724425%11 W · 33 L-7.2wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-45.3%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked AFC Bournemouth64c199.99$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7225648%123 W · 133 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked AFC Bournemouth79c194.95$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7122645.6%103 W · 123 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x193d…9741backed AFC Bournemouth66c171.1$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed AFC Bournemouth50c170.2$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.2515233.6%51 W · 101 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fbc…bdfbbacked Manchester City FC30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506428.1%18 W · 46 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Manchester City FC57c160$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.953540%14 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked AFC Bournemouth63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.735255.8%29 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9de1…f272backed AFC Bournemouth65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.858144.4%36 W · 45 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-13.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe1cc…28a0backed AFC Bournemouth65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.855366%35 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd6b…ca1bbacked AFC Bournemouth64c151.56$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.562347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-23.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77fc…0eacbacked Manchester City FC34c150.49$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.251154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaac8…b6f1backed Manchester City FC33c150.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503737.8%14 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-21.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed AFC Bournemouth68c147.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8328859.7%172 W · 116 L+19.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c65…ae29backed Manchester City FC34c147.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-39%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b24…4247backed Manchester City FC34c147.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504557.8%26 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed Manchester City FC34c144.98$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.297853.8%42 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb65e…431abacked Manchester City FC36c138.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x572c…c28fbacked Manchester City FC36c138.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb408…e303backed AFC Bournemouth68c135.15$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.255648.2%27 W · 29 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed AFC Bournemouth43c135$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.954436.4%16 W · 28 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick29cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x497c…a9bbbacked Manchester City FC36c133.06$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Manchester City FC35c129.89$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9616454.9%90 W · 74 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0066…a1adbacked AFC Bournemouth67c129.54$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.75757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Manchester City FC34c127.59$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0110534.3%36 W · 69 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4a8…f031backed Manchester City FC34c126.3$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8de6…8b3cbacked Manchester City FC36c123.9$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.66560%39 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c67…a109backed Manchester City FC29c120$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.81136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-29.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked AFC Bournemouth67c119.71$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.3818358.5%107 W · 76 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Manchester City FC31c117$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.271,69034.9%589 W · 1,101 L-33.1wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Manchester City FC35c114.29$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4038040.5%154 W · 226 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.