Premier League · resolved market
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b018fe9f5f774e858754c3bddd2ecfe65ab4e584c60e1b9833b401fe3f24cde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $157,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 4c | 42,868$1,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,684.42 | 81 | 16%13 W · 68 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 4c | 14,486$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.14 | 173 | 39.9%69 W · 104 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 6c | 4,466$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.42 | 886 | 35.8%317 W · 569 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…729cbacked Under | 1c | 3,606$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +115%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 6c | 3,592$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.71 | 721 | 42.7%308 W · 413 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked Under | 3c | 904.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Under | 4c | 839.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Under | 4c | 737.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 3c | 691.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 1,012 | 33.2%336 W · 676 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 3c | 458.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x714d…f5d1backed Under | 3c | 434.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…8620backed Under | 8c | 424.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Under | 4c | 407.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Under | 5c | 346.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Under | 4c | 314.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 248 | 44.4%110 W · 138 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 0.5this page
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)AFC Bournemouth won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)AFC Bournemouth won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.