Premier League · resolved market
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ebbc76e74e473a79205285213e65b9e5e3785413cc1889715d88739ff61d0ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 26c | 4,378$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138.18 | 136 | 30.9%42 W · 94 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…0b06backed Over | 25c | 4,213$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.16 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over | 25c | 2,060$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +132.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed Under | 75c | 1,987$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.47 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 19c | 1,977$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.99 | 592 | 47.6%282 W · 310 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 8c | 1,859$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.32 | 721 | 42.7%308 W · 413 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 11c | 1,330$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.09 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 26c | 1,229$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.88 | 1,012 | 33.2%336 W · 676 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 76c | 1,126$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.45 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 14c | 1,032$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.28 | 114 | 37.7%43 W · 71 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…6952backed Under | 76c | 1,010$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.4 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7305…1cb7backed Under | 78c | 1,009$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 354 | 28.5%101 W · 253 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 23c | 830.85$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.1 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 13c | 799.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 6c | 702.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Over | 7c | 694.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…e717backed Over | 15c | 609.44$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.42 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd360…2eabbacked Over | 26c | 532.69$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56d…c484backed Under | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 17c | 457.5$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.78 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +18.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 74c | 451.06$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.03 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…bb24backed Over | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 25c | 361.26$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.28 | 418 | 50.7%212 W · 206 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 8c | 310$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 102 | 21.6%22 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Over | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 12c | 299$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 17c | 248.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | +21.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Over | 16c | 224.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 24c | 217.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 335 | 51.3%172 W · 163 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Over | 23c | 206.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 306 | 45.8%140 W · 166 L | -11.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcac6…bdf8backed Under | 76c | 159.87$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 17c | 156.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 188 | 51.6%97 W · 91 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 24c | 156.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…1c01backed Under | 76c | 131.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 74c | 131$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Under | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -9.8wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd043…9ce2backed Under | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 19c | 119.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 1,163 | 57.4%667 W · 496 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 22c | 119.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 277 | 52.3%145 W · 132 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 21c | 119.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 24c | 115.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 732 | 58.5%428 W · 304 L | +46.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa1…36f6backed Under | 78c | 101.2$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 23c | 100.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Over | 25c | 97.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 221 | 46.2%102 W · 119 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21dd…0b83backed Over | 26c | 92.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Under | 78c | 91.03$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21a4…0b9ebacked Under | 77c | 90.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb722…1098backed Over | 35c | 84.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 24c | 82.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Over | 22c | 76.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 173 | 39.9%69 W · 104 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 75c | 74.86$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…6eafbacked Under | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…5c31backed Over | 27c | 66.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 74c | 63.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 206 | 51.9%107 W · 99 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…1619backed Over | 24c | 62.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 76c | 61.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 178 | 49.4%88 W · 90 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e18…7bb9backed Under | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…3d24backed Over | 26c | 45.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…bd3bbacked Over | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Over | 26c | 43.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 150 | 46%69 W · 81 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 76c | 36.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ddc…6ebabacked Under | 74c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 76c | 34.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 184 | 63%116 W · 68 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Under | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 73cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Under | 75c | 33.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac5d…7270backed Under | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 72cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbecf…0f51backed Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x381f…d1ccbacked Under | 77c | 21.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed Under | 76c | 20.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 53 | 73.6%39 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5this page
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)AFC Bournemouth won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)AFC Bournemouth won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.