MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e2851a0bf87cf60bd755104437d9ab26c78a30f0f295becb1c63bd8aea0bcb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Boston Red Sox, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 52c | 8,854$4,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,610.28 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins | 46c | 6,964$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,763.82 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Twins | 49c | 4,747$2,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,420.78 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Boston Red Sox | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Minnesota Twins | 61c | 1,855$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.28 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 999.98$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.99 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Boston Red Sox | 76c | 756$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.56 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 752$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.28 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 512.07$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.83 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 77c | 498.42$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.68 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 458.62$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 440.16$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.76 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Boston Red Sox | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Minnesota Twins | 67c | 302.12$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.77 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Boston Red Sox | 39c | 301$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.39 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Minnesota Twins | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Boston Red Sox | 33c | 203.21$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.06 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Minnesota Twins | 55c | 170$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.33 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 165.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.15 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…29ebbacked Boston Red Sox | 40c | 134.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins | 27c | 131.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.22 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 104$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Minnesota Twins | 50c | 89.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed Boston Red Sox | 52c | 87.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Boston Red Sox | 47c | 79.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Boston Red Sox | 71c | 66.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 63.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins | 46c | 62.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Boston Red Sox | 54c | 56.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Boston Red Sox | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Boston Red Sox | 52c | 46.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Boston Red Sox | 77c | 42.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Boston Red Sox | 40c | 41.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Minnesota Twins | 61c | 41.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Boston Red Sox | 54c | 40.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Boston Red Sox | 52c | 35.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Boston Red Sox | 33c | 35.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed Boston Red Sox | 52c | 35.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Boston Red Sox | 53c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 26.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Boston Red Sox | 52c | 25.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Boston Red Sox | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Boston Red Sox | 54c | 23.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…8d0bbacked Boston Red Sox | 53c | 22.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Minnesota Twins | 67c | 22.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Minnesota Twins | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red SoxMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 13.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 4.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.