TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Minnesota Twinsof Boston Red Sox, Minnesota Twins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,568
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,557

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,568 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Twins70c1,924$1,342 inWon+$582.0110,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox37c1,841$682 inLost-$681.9912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Boston Red Sox29c1,480$429 inLost-$429.192,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Minnesota Twins71c878$623 inWon+$254.6284049.4%415 W · 425 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0078…0690backed Minnesota Twins39c426.46$166 inWon+$260.145038%19 W · 31 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins61c289.56$177 inWon+$112.186,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Minnesota Twins78c139.69$109 inWon+$30.735,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Boston Red Sox28c109.33$31 inLost-$30.612,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Boston Red Sox22c108.73$24 inLost-$23.923,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins43c102.61$44 inWon+$58.288,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Boston Red Sox57c100$57 inLost-$5763943.3%277 W · 362 L+1.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Boston Red Sox30c99.98$30 inLost-$29.9931046.5%144 W · 166 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Boston Red Sox40c84.69$34 inLost-$34.036,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Minnesota Twins68c80.69$55 inWon+$25.822,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Boston Red Sox30c80$24 inLost-$241,11945.5%509 W · 610 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Boston Red Sox52c74.99$39 inLost-$39.212,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Minnesota Twins70c67.66$47 inWon+$20.31,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Minnesota Twins48c63.23$31 inWon+$32.572,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Boston Red Sox49c57.92$29 inLost-$28.545,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Minnesota Twins37c55.41$20 inWon+$34.913,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Boston Red Sox55c54.16$30 inLost-$30.058,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Minnesota Twins35c51.43$18 inWon+$33.4341637.5%156 W · 260 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Minnesota Twins72c41.67$30 inWon+$11.6713672.1%98 W · 38 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick74cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Minnesota Twins71c40$28 inWon+$11.65,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox47c38.63$18 inLost-$17.988,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Minnesota Twins71c37.54$27 inWon+$10.8929354.9%161 W · 132 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Boston Red Sox42c31.15$13 inLost-$13.171,44550.3%727 W · 718 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Minnesota Twins70c31$22 inWon+$9.31,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Minnesota Twins71c25.01$18 inWon+$7.2536250.3%182 W · 180 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Boston Red Sox63c22.16$14 inLost-$13.964,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Minnesota Twins70c22.08$15 inWon+$6.621,03851.7%537 W · 501 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Minnesota Twins70c17.06$12 inWon+$5.0866056.2%371 W · 289 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Minnesota Twins60c17$10 inWon+$6.81,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.