MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x596f0f6379bdc0760447958ac653e0ac3a442812afe4d2b194c05fbbe74dc331
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under | 0c | 27,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 47c | 14,627$6,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,752.37 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 53c | 13,400$7,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,101.81 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Over | 46c | 2,108$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,138.54 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…7e72backed Under | 51c | 2,059$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.19 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 49c | 1,447$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.56 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 54c | 1,020$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.8 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 54c | 1,008$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.71 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Over | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 829.52$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.7 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 24c | 637.05$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.82 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 435.31$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.78 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Over | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Under | 53c | 345.53$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.07 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 53c | 323.42$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.41 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…6d6bbacked Over | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.15 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 47c | 309.45$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.22 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 53c | 285.86$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.02 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 50c | 260$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 246.43$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.35 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Under | 54c | 240.74$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 48c | 236.02$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 54c | 231.09$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x079b…7263backed Under | 51c | 203.05$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 54c | 141.38$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.96 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 49c | 134.46$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.88 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Under | 57c | 112$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf16…b409backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 47c | 88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 47c | 56.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c0…5dd2backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 184 | 58.2%107 W · 77 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 50c | 47.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc50…7fdebacked Under | 54c | 45.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7630…d7fabacked Under | 53c | 42.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 53c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 35c | 33.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 53c | 26.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 53c | 21.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0d…2edabacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red SoxMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 13.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 4.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.