TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Minnesota Twinsof Minnesota Twins, Boston Red Sox
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,202
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,467

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,202 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox65c9,290$6,083 inLost-$6,082.7510,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins34c8,601$2,954 inWon+$5,646.3312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Minnesota Twins72c499.29$358 inWon+$141.389,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Boston Red Sox63c439.54$277 inLost-$276.776,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Minnesota Twins39c255$99 inWon+$155.751,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins31c255$80 inWon+$175.28,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Minnesota Twins37c232.85$86 inWon+$146.72,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Minnesota Twins28c174.31$49 inWon+$124.8831046.5%144 W · 166 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Boston Red Sox65c171.74$112 inLost-$111.632,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b81…88e7backed Minnesota Twins36c143.3$52 inWon+$91.1914353.1%76 W · 67 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Minnesota Twins16c128$21 inWon+$107.278,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Minnesota Twins55c106$58 inWon+$47.7847589.1%423 W · 52 L+84.9wins+0.18per pick71cpaid+25%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Boston Red Sox67c94$63 inLost-$63.31,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf886…d825backed Minnesota Twins35c86.01$30 inWon+$56.2610539%41 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-21.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Boston Red Sox68c79.07$54 inLost-$53.831,44550.3%727 W · 718 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Minnesota Twins32c77.21$25 inWon+$52.1658054.5%316 W · 264 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Minnesota Twins29c74.37$22 inWon+$52.795,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Boston Red Sox66c67$44 inLost-$44.221,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Minnesota Twins29c66.59$20 inWon+$47.015,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Minnesota Twins35c65.27$23 inWon+$42.491,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Boston Red Sox69c62.9$43 inLost-$43.42,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Boston Red Sox76c54$41 inLost-$41.041,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Minnesota Twins31c50$16 inWon+$34.51,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Minnesota Twins35c48.37$17 inWon+$31.4546952.5%246 W · 223 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f9…29a9backed Minnesota Twins37c45.71$17 inWon+$29.0222848.2%110 W · 118 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Minnesota Twins34c42.86$14 inWon+$28.3769447.6%330 W · 364 L-9.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Boston Red Sox65c40.03$26 inLost-$26.021,03851.7%537 W · 501 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox45c40$18 inLost-$1811,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Boston Red Sox53c39.39$21 inLost-$20.712,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Boston Red Sox67c30.39$20 inLost-$20.362,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked Minnesota Twins52c29$15 inWon+$13.9253261.8%329 W · 203 L+20.6wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Boston Red Sox75c25$19 inLost-$18.6566056.2%371 W · 289 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Boston Red Sox61c23.74$14 inLost-$14.461,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Boston Red Sox49c20.65$10 inLost-$10.15,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Boston Red Sox54c20.48$11 inLost-$10.976,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.