MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18d7b29d5abc038c13c5d335ec58eada75b514167d2920494dd411228544e7bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 3,462$1,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,730.05 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 3,235$1,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,678.38 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 1,898$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.72 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 25c | 1,746$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,309.47 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 46c | 1,200$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 46c | 694$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.76 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 75c | 491.76$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.82 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 20c | 478.72$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.68 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 37c | 423.71$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.44 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 59c | 342.08$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.03 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 80c | 237$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.6 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 75c | 152$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 50c | 142$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 26c | 120.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 23c | 63.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 75c | 60.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Under | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 47c | 58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 30c | 56.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 41c | 54.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 35c | 52.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Under | 45c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Under | 75c | 40.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Under | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Under | 50c | 39.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c9…f75abacked Under | 75c | 39.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…fdebbacked Over | 76c | 37.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 59c | 36.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed Under | 51c | 34.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Under | 50c | 30.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 38c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red SoxMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 13.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 4.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.