MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda52eb8572edbe8dbe037dc7be6faab15a79c603d3f2beb30b6ef5111125dad0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Boston Red Sox, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 6,975$2,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,783.89 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 6,355$3,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,621.9 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins | 66c | 490$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.05 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 338.79$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.31 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 46c | 262.44$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.6 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Minnesota Twins | 54c | 258.3$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.65 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins | 73c | 196.71$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Boston Red Sox | 30c | 191$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Minnesota Twins | 70c | 161.22$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Boston Red Sox | 33c | 143.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Boston Red Sox | 44c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 74.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Boston Red Sox | 26c | 72.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Boston Red Sox | 24c | 65.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 63.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Minnesota Twins | 75c | 63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Boston Red Sox | 27c | 58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 50.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Boston Red Sox | 36c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb213…49e1backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 129 | 56.6%73 W · 56 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Minnesota Twins | 72c | 31.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…96cbbacked Minnesota Twins | 68c | 23.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Minnesota Twins | 71c | 22.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…3107backed Minnesota Twins | 69c | 17.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 125 | 72%90 W · 35 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Minnesota Twins | 78c | 16.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red SoxMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 13.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 4.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.