TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
magicof Gentle Mates, magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$510,679
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$574,324

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $510,679 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 510 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x21ec…5348backed magic41c40,245$16,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,744.3272453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Gentle Mates58c26,196$15,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,193.4241649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Gentle Mates58c25,000$14,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,485.2775652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x83b8…09e5backed magic47c23,204$10,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,285.161145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Gentle Mates59c20,000$11,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,80050054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked magic42c18,848$7,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,925.445,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked Gentle Mates58c17,510$10,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,080.8416245.1%73 W · 89 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed magic42c16,339$6,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,477.4523839.9%95 W · 143 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Gentle Mates59c11,929$7,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,040.1564852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2b5…4582backed magic63c11,714$7,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,328.21540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-39.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54c2…23adbacked magic70c10,918$7,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,310.498748.3%42 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6902…b4cabacked Gentle Mates59c10,169$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00025751.8%133 W · 124 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed magic68c10,000$6,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,20037157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x482d…ba5ebacked magic41c10,000$4,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,899.987441.9%31 W · 43 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed magic67c9,813$6,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,262.425,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked magic41c9,700$3,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,7231,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed Gentle Mates59c8,655$5,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,099.4219455.2%107 W · 87 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0352…86b0backed magic43c8,305$3,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,734.671353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+48%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6043…84afbacked Gentle Mates29c8,027$2,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,366.11520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Gentle Mates57c7,262$4,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,139.3136152.6%190 W · 171 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed magic41c7,009$2,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,135.1484958.3%495 W · 354 L+60.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked magic42c6,500$2,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,77084454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d32…9dfcbacked Gentle Mates32c6,329$2,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,025.321816.7%3 W · 15 L-4.0wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-65.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x23fa…140bbacked magic69c5,245$3,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,602.381154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick66cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc6e…fa6fbacked Gentle Mates59c5,085$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00016248.1%78 W · 84 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf03…5b17backed Gentle Mates0c5,009$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.011030%3 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-46.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cd1…285dbacked magic41c5,000$2,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,933.299248.9%45 W · 47 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ea7…7fc0backed magic42c4,700$1,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7261546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Gentle Mates53c4,592$2,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,428.5833043.3%143 W · 187 L+1.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked magic59c4,529$2,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,872.461,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa557…6e77backed Gentle Mates32c4,510$1,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,443.1925248.8%123 W · 129 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed magic66c4,505$2,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,517.021,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed magic62c4,465$2,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,688.612,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed magic64c4,262$2,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5312,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x24c7…77c4backed Gentle Mates59c4,237$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50018846.3%87 W · 101 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Gentle Mates38c4,148$1,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,564.016,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb51…d2f5backed magic42c4,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3202857.1%16 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+25%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x70d8…a237backed Gentle Mates59c4,000$2,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3604643.5%20 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Gentle Mates58c3,500$2,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,03078639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed Gentle Mates29c3,333$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.5715052.7%79 W · 71 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Gentle Mates36c3,182$1,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150.6887047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed magic42c3,069$1,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,779.8420946.9%98 W · 111 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f4b…5345backed Gentle Mates59c3,000$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7703966.7%26 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Gentle Mates33c2,578$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.741,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked magic42c2,500$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,45019346.1%89 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked Gentle Mates59c2,493$1,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,48225261.5%155 W · 97 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked magic62c2,400$1,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907.251,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed magic42c2,294$963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330.2548437.6%182 W · 302 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked magic42c2,183$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,266.331,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd23c…07cebacked Gentle Mates59c2,100$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2391643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Gentle Mates38c2,079$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.63,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Gentle Mates32c2,050$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65661228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed magic41c2,048$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,208.3245639.3%179 W · 277 L-29.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc6f…959abacked magic73c2,042$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.593363.6%21 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked Gentle Mates34c1,995$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.4127658%160 W · 116 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd302…3c8fbacked Gentle Mates26c1,928$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.341764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.8wins+0.22per pick43cpaid+52.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked magic57c1,829$1,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.691154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3542…c3c8backed Gentle Mates59c1,800$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06216653%88 W · 78 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed magic41c1,800$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0621,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2412…55a2backed magic42c1,738$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.12240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Gentle Mates59c1,695$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00027552%143 W · 132 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62d6…90dfbacked Gentle Mates59c1,678$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.241369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick68cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6aa4…236cbacked magic69c1,626$1,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.963938.5%15 W · 24 L-5.4wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-32.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed Gentle Mates59c1,519$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.0220249%99 W · 103 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed Gentle Mates55c1,519$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.3955845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf6a…925fbacked Gentle Mates32c1,465$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.645742.1%24 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc68…f899backed magic59c1,439$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.544047.5%19 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe111…685abacked magic42c1,410$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.817540%70 W · 105 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Gentle Mates59c1,400$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.3226743.1%115 W · 152 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa57…2ec9backed Gentle Mates37c1,353$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.973531.4%11 W · 24 L-4.7wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-33.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb525…bdc7backed Gentle Mates59c1,326$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.1825845.7%118 W · 140 L-18.3wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked magic47c1,299$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.661,15748.2%558 W · 599 L+3.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf36e…f91cbacked magic41c1,284$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.6429839.3%117 W · 181 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Gentle Mates59c1,250$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.491,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x83b3…b3a2backed magic42c1,249$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.1918547%87 W · 98 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed magic66c1,212$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.1220353.2%108 W · 95 L+1.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Gentle Mates58c1,200$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69625145.8%115 W · 136 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa538…12c3backed magic60c1,200$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4802360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed magic42c1,183$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.972,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Gentle Mates38c1,130$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.021,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked magic41c1,098$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.5613234.8%46 W · 86 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Gentle Mates38c1,076$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.267,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaf…d959backed Gentle Mates47c1,044$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.893435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked Gentle Mates59c1,012$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.3535940.4%145 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x56d6…4404backed magic42c1,000$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58064058.1%372 W · 268 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d40…ec52backed Gentle Mates59c1,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59038954.5%212 W · 177 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed magic42c1,000$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5805639.3%22 W · 34 L+0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04e3…69d1backed magic41c1,000$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5904454.5%24 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a47…e2fbbacked Gentle Mates4c999.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Gentle Mates27c999.99$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+92.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed magic50c979.16$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.5823245.3%105 W · 127 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Gentle Mates35c912.28$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.221,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked Gentle Mates32c854.64$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.67812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick37cpaid-84%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x972f…65bdbacked Gentle Mates59c854.56$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50039157.5%225 W · 166 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36b6…d248backed Gentle Mates59c847.46$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc399…53abbacked magic68c845.7$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.2213244.7%59 W · 73 L-13.4wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-25.2%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xff89…a94abacked Gentle Mates27c827.45$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.414434.1%15 W · 29 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48de…95babacked Gentle Mates59c822.03$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48514744.2%65 W · 82 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ec8…e91abacked Gentle Mates30c802.55$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.652832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-31.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdec9…b8abbacked magic41c779$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.6120643.7%90 W · 116 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.