TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Canadiens vs. Sabres

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Canadiensof Canadiens, Sabres
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,960,470
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,036,776

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,960,470 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,291 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1925…4654backed Canadiens49c359,429$176,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183,308.7411644.8%52 W · 64 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Sabres51c178,719$91,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91,146.796352.4%33 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Canadiens48c127,184$61,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66,135.44757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Sabres51c100,000$51,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,00015054.7%82 W · 68 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Sabres51c97,498$49,969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,969.228749.8%143 W · 144 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Canadiens49c92,655$45,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,253.953046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Canadiens48c85,826$41,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,629.6467051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Sabres51c77,999$39,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,779.262763%17 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x47a8…52f9backed Canadiens65c48,581$31,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,904.867545.3%34 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Sabres51c45,069$22,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,985.0212146.3%56 W · 65 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Sabres51c43,137$21,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,988.7910545.7%48 W · 57 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Canadiens60c42,443$25,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,873.3130259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked Canadiens49c40,000$19,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,4004358.1%25 W · 18 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Sabres26c38,007$9,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,881.878657%49 W · 37 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+23.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb87b…3626backed Sabres32c35,000$11,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,099.951816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-52.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Sabres52c33,254$17,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,377.341,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Canadiens70c30,000$21,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,999.93580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+45.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x966c…9b1abacked Sabres51c29,412$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Sabres52c28,800$14,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,9764323.3%10 W · 33 L-5.8wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-50.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x72f8…8ea0backed Sabres52c27,515$14,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,30820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Sabres51c27,275$13,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,870.8511952.1%62 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked Sabres52c25,818$13,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,425.156538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Canadiens48c25,000$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,999.9256649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Sabres45c23,697$10,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,681.941,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Canadiens47c22,249$10,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,697.2326849.6%133 W · 135 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa66d…6daabacked Canadiens49c21,682$10,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,057.921560%9 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+17.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Sabres33c20,159$6,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,678.361,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Sabres46c20,133$9,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,263.8599638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Canadiens48c20,000$9,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,399.879352.7%49 W · 44 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4a9…6abbbacked Sabres52c18,856$9,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,805.3230%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1a2…14b8backed Canadiens49c16,700$8,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,5173450%17 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Canadiens59c15,500$9,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,367.3144848.9%219 W · 229 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Sabres29c15,000$4,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,349.881,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92b5…fec6backed Canadiens49c11,837$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,036.732236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce5e…c0fabacked Sabres52c10,650$5,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5382147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid0%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Canadiens49c10,596$5,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,403.8227044.4%120 W · 150 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Sabres36c10,237$3,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,732.12433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c0a…a9bebacked Canadiens46c10,000$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,4001947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Canadiens48c10,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,199.981,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd97…0ec5backed Sabres51c9,792$4,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,993.731643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f3c…2f57backed Sabres52c9,510$4,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,945.15540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed Sabres54c9,259$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0008946.1%41 W · 48 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Sabres51c8,537$4,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,325.521,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef2…ccfbbacked Sabres44c8,035$3,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,497.4412654.8%69 W · 57 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Sabres51c7,143$3,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,642.9126058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Sabres50c6,516$3,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,226.6818452.7%97 W · 87 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Sabres53c6,156$3,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,272.4611352.2%59 W · 54 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Sabres51c6,000$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,059.9919353.9%104 W · 89 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1869…fe78backed Canadiens49c5,841$2,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,950.761127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-35.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae51…1d03backed Sabres30c5,126$1,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,516.072450%12 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Canadiens66c5,081$3,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,712.832572%18 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+36.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Sabres52c5,003$2,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,601.712857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa538…12c3backed Canadiens49c5,000$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,549.981258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Sabres49c4,571$2,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,238.115644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed Sabres51c4,546$2,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,318.612846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb442…bed7backed Canadiens80c4,500$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9001233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-42.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf5d1…cdc9backed Sabres15c4,449$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.283228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Canadiens49c4,444$2,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,266.4433151.7%171 W · 160 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed Sabres51c4,373$2,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,230.114252.4%22 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f4…544cbacked Canadiens49c4,191$2,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,138.68757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8409…35ebbacked Canadiens63c4,183$2,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,566.591650%8 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed Sabres51c4,176$2,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,121.144139%16 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x19b1…83a0backed Sabres51c4,100$2,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,091.14875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+66%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Canadiens49c4,000$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,04041842.8%179 W · 239 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00ff…f7adbacked Sabres51c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,039.914555.6%25 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x941f…bac9backed Canadiens49c3,992$1,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,036.043935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Canadiens71c3,992$2,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,156.184173.2%30 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Canadiens49c3,902$1,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,990.031145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b7…500fbacked Canadiens71c3,800$2,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1022552%13 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Sabres52c3,774$1,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,962.6425337.9%96 W · 157 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6978…9897backed Sabres52c3,690$1,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,919944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick61cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Sabres51c3,400$1,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,733.999751.5%50 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b80…92afbacked Sabres52c3,382$1,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,758.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Sabres51c3,300$1,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,68360249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Sabres51c3,300$1,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,682.8443548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Sabres51c3,264$1,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,664.6420756.5%117 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb8e…34cebacked Sabres39c3,259$1,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,263.833164.5%20 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a93…c3eabacked Canadiens49c3,246$1,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,654.074951%25 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Sabres51c3,151$1,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,606.827850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Sabres51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53011153.2%59 W · 52 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Sabres51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5306841.2%28 W · 40 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Sabres51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,530333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-52.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Sabres29c3,000$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.9513049.2%64 W · 66 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Sabres51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,529.8813333.1%44 W · 89 L-11.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Sabres52c2,750$1,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,43039649.5%196 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d57…18ddbacked Canadiens51c2,715$1,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,339.111540%6 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Sabres50c2,657$1,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,315.8212355.3%68 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed Sabres52c2,575$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,350742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1da3…2f94backed Canadiens49c2,551$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,301.022653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4748…9666backed Sabres39c2,541$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9903148.4%15 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Sabres51c2,500$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,27531848.7%155 W · 163 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb74…997cbacked Canadiens48c2,400$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,247.941942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Sabres47c2,327$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.1214551%74 W · 71 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e10…650cbacked Canadiens49c2,292$1,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,168.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Sabres54c2,271$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,226.512552%65 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f3b…9ed5backed Canadiens49c2,245$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,144.87250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Sabres53c2,222$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,177.6675251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Canadiens49c2,200$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,13213747.4%65 W · 72 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Canadiens51c2,155$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.6517750.8%90 W · 87 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c0e…8f37backed Sabres52c2,046$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.