NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f83ab6dbd34f3185d0cc25829ffda63c1bed327ba68dc7bcce3e102129e7af4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae51…1d03backed Over | 16c | 5,266$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.28 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 24c | 4,939$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.25 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 76c | 3,000$2,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 29c | 1,632$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.43 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked Under | 77c | 1,133$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.59 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe06…0620backed Over | 27c | 975.65$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa7…e3d9backed Over | 22c | 943$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.44 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 77c | 854.07$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.84 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…11b3backed Over | 26c | 808.1$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.14 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 23c | 669.31$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.94 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 76c | 554.99$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.2 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0eb…af1ebacked Over | 24c | 433.71$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.01 | 172 | 27.3%47 W · 125 L | -17.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 77c | 355.49$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.76 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 79c | 348.61$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.63 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 77c | 332.74$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.1 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…0c70backed Over | 23c | 277.08$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 236 | 65.7%155 W · 81 L | +15.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 18c | 197.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 119 | 33.6%40 W · 79 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 78c | 189.5$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Under | 45c | 174.73$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 79c | 106.75$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3493…47bcbacked Over | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 77c | 81.35$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…18f0backed Over | 19c | 72.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…7141backed Over | 24c | 66.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x25b4…635abacked Over | 22c | 54.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 76c | 27.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 78c | 24.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb11…73f2backed Under | 77c | 23.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 73c | 21.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…523cbacked Under | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5this page
- Canadiens vs. SabresCanadiens won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Sabres won
- Spread: Canadiens (-2.5)Sabres won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.