NHL · resolved market
Spread: Sabres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6de6947601e93d87d52e0fbdc7e490ffbce0a8f8c13f944309da958a30846777
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Canadiensof Sabres, Canadiens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfed8…4388backed Sabres | 31c | 17,391$5,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,471.31 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Sabres | 31c | 7,275$2,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,274.3 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Canadiens | 68c | 6,098$4,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,951.33 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Canadiens | 69c | 4,962$3,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,538.36 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Canadiens | 70c | 3,571$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.43 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Canadiens | 69c | 2,000$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Canadiens | 68c | 2,000$1,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Canadiens | 69c | 1,612$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.59 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Canadiens | 69c | 1,578$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.27 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Sabres | 32c | 1,231$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.86 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 32cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Canadiens | 69c | 1,207$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.72 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Canadiens | 69c | 1,100$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Canadiens | 69c | 1,044$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.6 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Canadiens | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Canadiens | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Canadiens | 69c | 839.99$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.4 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed Canadiens | 70c | 799.99$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Sabres | 31c | 700.2$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.38 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Sabres | 30c | 635.72$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.72 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Canadiens | 70c | 533.57$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.07 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Canadiens | 79c | 531$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.51 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Sabres | 26c | 524.04$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.51 | 119 | 33.6%40 W · 79 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…0db4backed Sabres | 31c | 516.13$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Canadiens | 69c | 505.58$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.98 | 146 | 53.4%78 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Canadiens | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Canadiens | 69c | 418$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.58 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Sabres | 12c | 365.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 128 | 59.4%76 W · 52 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Sabres | 31c | 340$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.4 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019e…af1dbacked Sabres | 30c | 333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Canadiens | 66c | 302$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.68 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d1…f8c0backed Sabres | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.8wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +151%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7b50…71c9backed Canadiens | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…84ecbacked Sabres | 30c | 249.64$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbf…70a1backed Canadiens | 69c | 239.13$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.13 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Sabres | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Canadiens | 70c | 197.19$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.61 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c3…c2e6backed Canadiens | 70c | 190$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Canadiens | 69c | 189.32$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Sabres | 31c | 177.42$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…0d19backed Sabres | 30c | 162.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…0c70backed Sabres | 31c | 141.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Canadiens | 70c | 140$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe06…0620backed Canadiens | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…783cbacked Sabres | 10c | 121.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -4.1wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…d64bbacked Sabres | 31c | 101.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…18f0backed Sabres | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Sabres | 30c | 88.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Canadiens | 70c | 88.57$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…52d1backed Canadiens | 69c | 88.46$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…ac46backed Canadiens | 70c | 85.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e05…1b97backed Canadiens | 70c | 77.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Canadiens | 70c | 71.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed Canadiens | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Canadiens | 71c | 70.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Canadiens | 71c | 70.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +8.9wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x75f1…3abdbacked Sabres | 31c | 67.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cff…72f4backed Sabres | 31c | 62.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Sabres | 27c | 59.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Sabres | 31c | 56.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked Sabres | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Sabres | 27c | 47.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…4db6backed Canadiens | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Sabres | 31c | 39.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x830d…0dc1backed Canadiens | 70c | 39.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Sabres | 30c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fc…faedbacked Sabres | 29c | 37.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…e722backed Sabres | 28c | 37.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Canadiens | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Canadiens | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +8.6wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ba…7aaebacked Canadiens | 70c | 28.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f06…d65bbacked Canadiens | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Canadiens | 69c | 25.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Canadiens | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa06f…cbadbacked Canadiens | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)this page
- Canadiens vs. SabresCanadiens won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Sabres won
- Spread: Canadiens (-2.5)Sabres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.