NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc131f324ea0a4fd3cea29f71f5a4bbecd12f5e13288d0ec8ccd38c79fc2d8005
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Under | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 74c | 3,152$2,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.45 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 19c | 1,972$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.08 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0940…3640backed Over | 76c | 1,704$1,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.99 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 27c | 1,545$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.11 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb58d…fadfbacked Under | 29c | 1,136$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.21 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 25c | 999.97$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Over | 76c | 859.09$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.3 | 128 | 59.4%76 W · 52 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 73c | 499.61$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.64 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 25c | 444$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 73c | 422.74$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.15 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…11b3backed Under | 27c | 400$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked Over | 70c | 309.2$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.94 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Over | 72c | 271.84$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.12 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed Over | 73c | 266.99$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.09 | 75 | 80%60 W · 15 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 26c | 264.35$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.73 | 146 | 53.4%78 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7976…e3c4backed Under | 24c | 239$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…0c70backed Under | 27c | 222.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Under | 14c | 199.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 76c | 180.67$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…480abacked Under | 28c | 178.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…1a35backed Over | 75c | 132.17$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 79c | 129.17$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x153a…212dbacked Over | 78c | 128.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…437cbacked Over | 80c | 125.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Under | 16c | 111$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1c…d8acbacked Under | 39c | 106.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 25c | 101.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…9423backed Over | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 165 | 54.5%90 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Under | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…7dcbbacked Over | 75c | 99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Under | 28c | 97.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…98a7backed Under | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e75…b009backed Over | 73c | 77.85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 73c | 77.65$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 119 | 33.6%40 W · 79 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad9e…53c2backed Over | 76c | 76.08$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 74cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…04a7backed Over | 75c | 74.67$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Under | 27c | 73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 73c | 71$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df2…d472backed Over | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…7349backed Over | 76c | 65.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…9971backed Under | 26c | 65.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 77c | 62.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 74c | 60.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2003…af6fbacked Over | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e9…0e4cbacked Under | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41c3…4d56backed Over | 71c | 54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x812c…b81fbacked Over | 73c | 52.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5076…e15dbacked Over | 74c | 41.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…5c31backed Under | 25c | 41.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x893b…36cfbacked Over | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7dd…12f0backed Over | 75c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…fd49backed Over | 73c | 30.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…5174backed Over | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4840…2473backed Over | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712b…b25fbacked Over | 72c | 27.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 59cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x757a…1f84backed Over | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a8…d377backed Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…7272backed Over | 75c | 26.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +8.6wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9f…fa1cbacked Over | 71c | 25.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 75c | 24.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Over | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…b241backed Over | 76c | 20.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…55b8backed Over | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed Over | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5this page
- Canadiens vs. SabresCanadiens won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Sabres won
- Spread: Canadiens (-2.5)Sabres won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.