TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Ducks vs. Golden Knights

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Golden Knightsof Ducks, Golden Knights
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,009,630
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,037,446

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,009,630 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 774 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc807…c12bbacked Golden Knights60c150,000$90,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,0006352.4%33 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47a8…52f9backed Ducks40c75,000$30,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,0007545.3%34 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Ducks41c61,464$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,0002564%16 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Golden Knights59c51,821$30,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,286.931,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…d62abacked Golden Knights58c34,436$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,435.582240.9%9 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-30.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Ducks41c33,842$13,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,818.321,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Ducks40c30,000$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,00056649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Ducks43c29,565$12,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,780.852433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Ducks33c27,004$8,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,896.951,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Golden Knights59c22,673$13,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,296.022763%17 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Ducks41c21,207$8,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,604.9428749.8%143 W · 144 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked Ducks43c21,090$8,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,991.942045%9 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc336…02abbacked Golden Knights48c20,831$10,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,735.15560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+22.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c0a…a9bebacked Ducks46c20,000$9,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,2001947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb8e…34cebacked Golden Knights59c20,000$11,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,199.923164.5%20 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1a2…14b8backed Ducks45c19,000$8,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,637.73450%17 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ef2…ccfbbacked Golden Knights55c15,044$8,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,767.8412654.8%69 W · 57 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Ducks50c10,398$5,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,175.3115448.1%74 W · 80 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa5f…6bfebacked Ducks42c10,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,200966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Golden Knights55c10,000$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,5008657%49 W · 37 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+23.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed Ducks40c9,955$3,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,982.095841.4%24 W · 34 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Ducks40c9,878$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00032151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed Ducks41c9,645$3,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,953.122343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Ducks45c9,227$4,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,152.261741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Golden Knights60c8,182$4,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,311.128345.8%38 W · 45 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Golden Knights62c7,748$4,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,959.3318452.7%97 W · 87 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0940…3640backed Ducks44c7,605$3,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3465949.2%29 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Golden Knights56c7,000$3,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,079.981957.9%11 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Golden Knights58c6,209$3,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,579.671,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2b5…4582backed Golden Knights57c5,836$3,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,530.64560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Ducks39c5,653$2,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,185.62,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Golden Knights59c5,525$3,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,239.9961950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56f3…bf55backed Ducks40c5,100$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0401747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7200…9299backed Ducks40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.983531.4%11 W · 24 L-4.8wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-30.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Ducks25c4,788$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,211.777038.6%27 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Ducks40c4,500$1,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8202441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc952…1d90backed Ducks46c4,269$1,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,963.7120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa574…5f84backed Golden Knights59c4,236$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,736.02683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick58cpaid+47%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x844e…4efdbacked Ducks45c4,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8005276.9%40 W · 12 L+11.6wins+0.22per pick55cpaid+42.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Golden Knights59c4,000$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,64019353.9%104 W · 89 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Ducks13c4,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5202433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-29.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x49f2…d7b4backed Ducks42c4,000$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6801442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…a992backed Ducks33c3,905$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30012328.5%35 W · 88 L-9.2wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-34.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Golden Knights60c3,691$2,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,463.779157.1%52 W · 39 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Golden Knights54c3,666$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,686.3433151.7%171 W · 160 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c14…68f3backed Ducks3c3,590$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.691020%2 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick3cpaid+309.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Golden Knights47c3,319$1,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,773.327044.4%120 W · 150 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Ducks54c3,285$1,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,773.661,84657.2%1,055 W · 791 L+85.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5d1…cdc9backed Golden Knights60c3,105$1,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,242.073228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96ca…5a71backed Golden Knights42c3,055$1,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,771.8355446.4%257 W · 297 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Golden Knights60c3,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20031550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x00ff…f7adbacked Golden Knights60c3,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2004555.6%25 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f0e…7397backed Ducks40c2,994$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,197.541030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-49%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Golden Knights63c2,897$1,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,070.023174.2%23 W · 8 L+6.2wins+0.20per pick54cpaid+35.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdcbf…d37fbacked Golden Knights56c2,864$1,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,260.22944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed Ducks42c2,857$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20014940.9%61 W · 88 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Golden Knights69c2,819$1,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.9514946.3%69 W · 80 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ducks54c2,770$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498.961,02853.2%547 W · 481 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Ducks40c2,500$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004323.3%10 W · 33 L-5.8wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-50.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2c55…97d4backed Golden Knights60c2,500$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0005662.5%35 W · 21 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf84b…3e6cbacked Golden Knights60c2,500$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07aa…deb1backed Golden Knights60c2,500$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0008845.5%40 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6e…99eabacked Ducks42c2,280$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.640%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Ducks41c2,152$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.346456.3%36 W · 28 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x528f…2101backed Golden Knights60c2,140$1,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$855.4417353.8%93 W · 80 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Golden Knights55c2,091$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.917755.8%43 W · 34 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Ducks56c2,003$1,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.1133234.3%114 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Golden Knights60c2,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80011153.2%59 W · 52 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x941f…bac9backed Ducks15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa974…ef79backed Ducks48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96010743%46 W · 61 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Golden Knights55c1,957$1,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.522352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+25.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x51b8…d25fbacked Ducks19c1,946$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.81030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6550…8451backed Ducks44c1,861$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.38837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-37.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41f7…c4e4backed Ducks42c1,781$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.927147.9%34 W · 37 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Golden Knights57c1,754$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.3917750.8%90 W · 87 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Ducks46c1,727$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.595644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf09b…584ebacked Ducks40c1,705$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.352236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Golden Knights56c1,598$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.0925449.6%126 W · 128 L-15.0wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x58b6…c324backed Ducks53c1,591$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.273658.3%21 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde1d…44a6backed Ducks41c1,585$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.26per pick51cpaid+49.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Golden Knights60c1,500$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60027243.4%118 W · 154 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b8f…449bbacked Golden Knights60c1,462$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.22475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Ducks37c1,454$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.0299638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26fb…67b8backed Golden Knights60c1,394$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.4212859.4%76 W · 52 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5941…9583backed Ducks41c1,345$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5504353.5%23 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3248…aad4backed Ducks35c1,316$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.325152.9%27 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x128a…a1b0backed Golden Knights57c1,316$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.792552%13 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9c7…5d22backed Ducks33c1,306$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4358445.2%38 W · 46 L+14.8wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+35.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Ducks42c1,282$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.899258.7%54 W · 38 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked Ducks15c1,179$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.826538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x52e3…3337backed Golden Knights60c1,162$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.82755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fae…3488backed Ducks46c1,154$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.689550.5%48 W · 47 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21f5…c161backed Ducks44c1,136$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Golden Knights60c1,125$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45039649.5%196 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Golden Knights57c1,111$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.7389249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Golden Knights54c1,100$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50626154%141 W · 120 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96d9…18a0backed Golden Knights59c1,100$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.424847.6%118 W · 130 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2003…af6fbacked Ducks44c1,070$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.893141.9%13 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Golden Knights58c1,057$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.6440356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Golden Knights51c1,018$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49524837.9%94 W · 154 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.