TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$266,171
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$266,336

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $266,171 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed Under48c194,537$94,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100,488.5843647%205 W · 231 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Over51c110,390$56,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,299.1435854.5%195 W · 163 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over53c34,677$18,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,217.5511,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffe9…a70ebacked Over53c21,510$11,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,400.31241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Under47c19,110$8,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,148.3523538.3%90 W · 145 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,2001,29250.2%648 W · 644 L+18.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Over52c7,404$3,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,850.1855053.1%292 W · 258 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f08…5afbbacked Under48c6,578$3,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,414.5814340.6%58 W · 85 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47e3…e736backed Under48c6,000$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1204742.6%20 W · 27 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-21.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x49f2…d7b4backed Over52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6005143.1%22 W · 29 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over51c4,380$2,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,255.488,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over53c3,074$1,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,625.4110,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Over53c3,035$1,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,608.53,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Over53c3,012$1,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,586.3373748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over52c3,005$1,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,562.61,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over54c2,261$1,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.494,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over52c1,977$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,021.68,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Over53c1,887$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00089153.5%477 W · 414 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over53c1,856$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.886,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88b0…f8d8backed Under47c1,854$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$982.62850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e9c…1fcabacked Over54c1,759$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9506942%29 W · 40 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Under47c1,636$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$867.0712350.4%62 W · 61 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Over51c1,533$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.8368053.2%362 W · 318 L+2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Under46c1,505$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.432,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Under48c1,489$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.2328154.4%153 W · 128 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Over53c1,427$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.2486548.7%421 W · 444 L-8.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over52c1,364$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.415,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over47c1,265$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.0212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Over53c1,132$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60038353.5%205 W · 178 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over52c1,009$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.631,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under50c1,007$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.61,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab4d…3f0bbacked Over55c999.99$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.992245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb10e…beedbacked Over50c999.99$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over52c962$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.241,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe22a…cb75backed Over54c666.52$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.9226948.7%131 W · 138 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Over53c661$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.3327249.3%134 W · 138 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Under46c617.56$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.481,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under48c576.69$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.741,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4ae…7aa6backed Over54c555.56$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007048.6%34 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Over53c500$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26585952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd508…0009backed Under47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+50.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Under41c487.79$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.82,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86ee…511fbacked Over55c454.55$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25024350.6%123 W · 120 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over34c433.17$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.229,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d16…212ebacked Over53c405.72$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.0320648.1%99 W · 107 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Over59c387.54$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.271,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x992b…5053backed Over53c378.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20022753.3%121 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x898a…499abacked Over56c351.08$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.784358.1%25 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Over53c349.38$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.1754152.1%282 W · 259 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under35c346.5$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.233,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under78c314$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.081,07558.3%627 W · 448 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Over52c300$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15659150.3%297 W · 294 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Over53c289.6$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.491,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c76…862dbacked Over54c277.96$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010343.7%45 W · 58 L-9.9wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over52c263$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.762,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under63c239.75$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.788,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2bfa…8b61backed Over54c231.48$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12518356.8%104 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb722…1098backed Over34c222.17$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.61844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf45…ea2cbacked Under47c221.66$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.48650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Over53c219.95$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.571,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc263…1e83backed Over53c200.55$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.5544648.7%217 W · 229 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b1a…d790backed Under48c199$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.489945.5%45 W · 54 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed Over52c198$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.9630048%144 W · 156 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a7…e5d4backed Over54c195.08$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.3432857.9%190 W · 138 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Over55c192.73$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1061,00052.4%524 W · 476 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over43c191.4$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2661948.6%301 W · 318 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over53c190$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.71,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3af2…5212backed Over54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Over53c184.47$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7794648.9%463 W · 483 L+4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32f7…f399backed Under49c183.67$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.673762.2%23 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Over55c182.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10024950.6%126 W · 123 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf748…c387backed Over55c181.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.682025%5 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-40.9%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under22c159.83$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.674,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over49c148$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.925,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e46…42dfbacked Over53c147.38$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1117250.6%87 W · 85 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9ac…8de4backed Over53c146.68$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7418551.4%95 W · 90 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cc1…b855backed Over60c146.49$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.413548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7240…3325backed Over54c114.13$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.631338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-33.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2573…2726backed Over54c111.11$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6023051.7%119 W · 111 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Under47c100.22$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.121,06249.2%523 W · 539 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb779…ab22backed Over58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee6…cbfebacked Under46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5410036%36 W · 64 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5237357.4%214 W · 159 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d09…7dfbbacked Under50c96.9$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.633032.7%108 W · 222 L-22.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-27.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Under45c93.39$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.3623248.7%113 W · 119 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd60…3927backed Over54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505549.1%27 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8490…ac46backed Over54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504555.6%25 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa20d…eadebacked Over55c91.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020446.6%95 W · 109 L-10.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under48c90.98$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.66,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over53c89.19$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2745246.2%209 W · 243 L-18.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Over53c88.4$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.851,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Over53c81.42$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1551555.7%287 W · 228 L+19.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Under47c75$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7572247.6%344 W · 378 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dea…5e23backed Over53c73.03$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6442550.1%213 W · 212 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over42c72.82$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.644,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Under69c72.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4657548%276 W · 299 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Under47c65.04$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4756851.4%292 W · 276 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33c9…5124backed Over54c64.81$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3541249.5%204 W · 208 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7398…29ebbacked Under47c63.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.833056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b81…88e7backed Over55c63.5$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7714353.1%76 W · 67 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.