MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9985006635faf5b5408491a573a28d6bb221b63744b33ef4e1d3d8962711b148
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 46c | 4,216$1,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,941.5 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 54c | 1,246$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.29 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 54c | 1,005$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.3 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 39c | 512.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 61c | 441.41$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.34 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 75c | 430$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 28c | 418.25$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.52 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 54c | 396$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.16 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 54c | 359.99$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.59 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 53c | 213.87$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.52 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 34c | 196.76$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 40c | 167$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.53 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 45c | 156.92$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.62 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 73c | 149.92$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Under | 51c | 101.96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.96 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 64c | 98.64$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 72c | 74.08$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 30c | 64.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 18c | 62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Under | 71c | 54.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9883…1d31backed Under | 54c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Under | 48c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb13…d09bbacked Under | 75c | 23.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 55c | 22.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6419…0f53backed Under | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 57c | 19.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee8…7406backed Under | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.