MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x504044ab2eeaa25415430ff52558c04eb56eedc231bd642a58050a9848c10a65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Under | 6c | 1,250$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked Over | 76c | 1,144$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.64 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 24c | 1,071$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.66 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 33c | 492.86$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.65 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Over | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 74c | 270$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 72c | 246$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 69c | 204.81$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.86 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 34c | 203$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.02 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 66c | 203$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.02 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 67c | 175.1$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.07 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 31c | 135$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 71c | 120$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 44c | 112$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 67c | 103.04$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Under | 33c | 98.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 29c | 91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 42c | 86.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Over | 68c | 78.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | -9.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…01c6backed Under | 51c | 76.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 67c | 75.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 74.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 28c | 73.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Under | 27c | 56.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…a008backed Over | 72c | 41.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 135 | 65.2%88 W · 47 L | +9.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Over | 71c | 33.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3afb…0004backed Over | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 78c | 15.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…28b8backed Over | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 192 | 57.8%111 W · 81 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee8…7406backed Over | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.