MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ac0dda028d32ebc84f94f3e84792330481ee902d1811989391c75d7c076261f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Under | 0c | 22,820$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Under | 38c | 1,006$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.28 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 62c | 611.33$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.35 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 39c | 494.45$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.85 | 755 | 44.2%334 W · 421 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 53c | 446.04$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.1 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Under | 48c | 411.04$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.3 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Over | 61c | 409.84$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.84 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 55c | 294.73$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.84 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156e…cf6fbacked Over | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 40c | 244.47$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.79 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 62c | 222.96$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.21 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 26c | 207.6$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 10c | 192.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 62c | 133.93$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.49 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 38c | 122.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.34 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Under | 41c | 97.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 48c | 88.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 52c | 83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 63c | 74.16$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Under | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 61c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6419…0f53backed Under | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 38c | 27.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 53c | 22.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Over | 61c | 20.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Over | 61c | 20.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…29a4backed Over | 61c | 20.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…28b8backed Over | 61c | 20.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe82f…85d2backed Over | 61c | 20.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.