MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddab87ba655fabaa20b65c405954ef7ee2ded1d4a504efc69419c9a3a36cd944
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 6,195$2,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,291.99 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 32c | 5,843$1,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,860.75 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 5,610$3,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,832.59 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 4,320$2,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,598.4 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 3,000$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 2,435$1,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.64 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 1,362$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.85 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 1,021$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.84 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 725$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.12 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 691.66$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.83 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 643$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.02 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 482.76$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.99 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 340.37$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.73 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 254$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.98 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 220$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.13 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 209$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.87 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 175.2$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.82 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 157.52$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 140$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 139.32$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.36 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 136.06$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.56 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 130$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | -13.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 120$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 31c | 107.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | -9.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfe…bfb7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 31c | 75.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Cincinnati Reds | 77c | 68.37$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 79c | 54.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 54.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Philadelphia Phillies | 31c | 33.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 30.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 27.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb13…d09bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 19.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.