MLB · resolved market

Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf930354fdc89935b306e799d54ad6fecccc27d8a6fc542bf7c8ab9945c1de6ac

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: May 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $73,255
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $78,682

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,255 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xba48…5b0abacked Under	54c	16,073$8,679 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,679.3	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.29per pick	54cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd9d…b730backed Over	48c	10,417$5,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,416.67	27	66.7%18 W · 9 L	+4.2wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over	47c	6,496$3,056 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,440.6	6,116	55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L	+344.6wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under	49c	5,250$2,561 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,560.51	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under	52c	5,093$2,668 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,668.11	11,357	52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L	+209.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Under	54c	2,211$1,184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,183.82	1,213	40.5%491 W · 722 L	-32.1wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Under	50c	2,000$995 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$995	142	52.1%74 W · 68 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Over	46c	2,000$920 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,080	550	52.4%288 W · 262 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cef…fa91backed Over	47c	1,856$873 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$983.91	146	47.3%69 W · 77 L	-5.8wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Over	48c	1,729$822 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$906.39	2,407	48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L	-62.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16e5…6373backed Under	55c	1,583$871 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$870.92	86	58.1%50 W · 36 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under	52c	1,528$795 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$794.56	920	54%497 W · 423 L	+23.1wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	52c	1,422$746 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$746.43	5,401	50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L	+17.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Over	46c	1,388$639 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$749.6	3,453	51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L	+58.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Over	47c	1,048$493 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$555.55	1,379	50.6%698 W · 681 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Under	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	119	14.3%17 W · 102 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+289.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Under	52c	1,000$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520	96	55.2%53 W · 43 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over	48c	890.7$428 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$462.74	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under	52c	880$462 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$461.8	1,769	51.6%912 W · 857 L	+16.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f3b…9ed5backed Over	49c	804.35$394 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$410.22	64	56.3%36 W · 28 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Over	49c	784$385 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$399.19	1,630	55.2%899 W · 731 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Over	50c	743.52$372 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$371.76	2,293	48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L	-24.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under	51c	660.1$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336.65	1,572	48.3%759 W · 813 L	-6.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Over	47c	637.95$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$338.02	1,733	49%849 W · 884 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Over	47c	628.66$295 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$333.19	739	49.8%368 W · 371 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x234b…f36dbacked Under	52c	549.02$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.49	95	53.7%51 W · 44 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cd3…5896backed Over	48c	519.99$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270.39	174	46%80 W · 94 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over	51c	502.57$258 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$244.91	9,728	46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L	+32.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Over	48c	444.32$214 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$230.81	660	56.2%371 W · 289 L	+12.6wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Over	48c	390.63$188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$203.13	568	51.4%292 W · 276 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x068c…582ebacked Under	52c	384.62$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	384	55.2%212 W · 172 L	+9.9wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Over	47c	320.74$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$169.29	1,133	57.2%648 W · 485 L	+35.9wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	54c	320.69$174 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$146.24	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79fb…b4aebacked Over	49c	300$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153	115	50.4%58 W · 57 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e43…c324backed Over	47c	289.36$136 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153.36	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.52per pick	48cpaid	+108.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b55…1167backed Under	54c	275.48$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.76	108	60.2%65 W · 43 L	-7.0wins	-0.06per pick	67cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6628…05aebacked Under	52c	249.99$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129	232	44%102 W · 130 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over	46c	239.8$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.49	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Under	54c	222.22$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	267	47.9%128 W · 139 L	-6.8wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Under	27c	200.02$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.01	827	41.1%340 W · 487 L	-21.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Over	47c	200$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106	591	50.3%297 W · 294 L	+9.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over	53c	188.32$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.06	5,127	54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L	+232.0wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Under	35c	174.74$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.36	418	36.4%152 W · 266 L	-31.6wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Under	19c	122.87$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.74	677	42.2%286 W · 391 L	-36.7wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-18%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under	32c	114.58$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.19	5,786	43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L	-192.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x61d3…189abacked Over	42c	114.51$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.53	238	54.2%129 W · 109 L	+11.4wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7baa…03b7backed Over	42c	113.35$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.37	198	55.1%109 W · 89 L	+6.0wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over	49c	106.38$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.25	2,995	50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L	-36.0wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec14…7fafbacked Over	48c	104.17$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.17	478	49%234 W · 244 L	+14.0wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc26a…76a1backed Over	42c	101.77$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.03	67	43.3%29 W · 38 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4193…4853backed Over	57c	100$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43	846	51.5%436 W · 410 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7067…38dbbacked Under	52c	96.13$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.99	45	37.8%17 W · 28 L	-7.7wins	-0.17per pick	55cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over	47c	96$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.83	330	32.7%108 W · 222 L	-22.8wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under	31c	93.99$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.14	2,545	45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L	-73.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1496…e155backed Over	49c	85.16$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.43	120	50%60 W · 60 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Over	46c	77$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.58	722	47.6%344 W · 378 L	-12.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Over	72c	76$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.28	499	42.9%214 W · 285 L	-31.5wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Under	61c	70.14$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.79	575	48%276 W · 299 L	-17.0wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7398…29ebbacked Over	47c	63.83$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.83	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	+1.9wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x505a…bb61backed Over	40c	63$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.8	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c76…2632backed Under	42c	60.7$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.75	245	54.7%134 W · 111 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3afb…0004backed Over	49c	60.43$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.82	106	50%53 W · 53 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xaf23…dcb7backed Over	47c	51$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.03	57	38.6%22 W · 35 L	-5.9wins	-0.10per pick	49cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd5f5…bb11backed Over	46c	50$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	559	53.1%297 W · 262 L	+10.5wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Over	47c	40.68$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.56	1,836	50.8%932 W · 904 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4cf2…ba26backed Over	47c	40.43$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.43	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3216…0cc7backed Under	53c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-2.4wins	-0.11per pick	40cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Under	28c	36$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	1,522	34.7%528 W · 994 L	+27.1wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Over	47c	35.3$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.69	2,243	57.6%1,293 W · 950 L	+37.1wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdda1…7b5ebacked Over	49c	34.04$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.36	86	51.2%44 W · 42 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99d5…9622backed Under	54c	33.33$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	76	43.4%33 W · 43 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5dc…0f05backed Over	54c	33.03$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.03	52	53.8%28 W · 24 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Over	60c	30.1$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.9	3,457	51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L	+108.1wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bcf…c678backed Over	49c	27.94$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.33	246	54.9%135 W · 111 L	+3.2wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Under	48c	27.48$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.19	1,367	54.3%742 W · 625 L	+16.5wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x934c…d174backed Over	55c	27.45$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.45	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.22per pick	53cpaid	+38.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Under	55c	25.22$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.87	201	56.2%113 W · 88 L	+8.3wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under	52c	23.56$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	57	64.9%37 W · 20 L	+6.3wins	+0.11per pick	54cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over	46c	23$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.42	1,053	47.3%498 W · 555 L	-14.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x05b7…c24abacked Over	46c	22.11$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.94	280	43.2%121 W · 159 L	-23.2wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x89ab…89acbacked Under	55c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	78	56.4%44 W · 34 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5this page
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Miami Marlins won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event